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FIGHT ODDS

UFC Fight Night ‘Bigfoot vs. Arlovski 2’ Preview

Patrick WymanSep 10, 2014
Efrain Escudero has not won a fight in the UFC since May 2010. | Photo: Keith Mills/Sherdog.com


Photo: Daniel Herbertson/Sherdog.com

Santos, 34, favors submissions.

Lightweights

Leonardo Santos (12-3-1, 1-0-1 UFC) vs. Efrain Escudero (22-8, 3-4 UFC)

The Matchup: Coming off a draw that really should have been a loss against Norman Parke, “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” Season 2 winner Santos will attempt to initiate a new winning streak against “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 8 winner Escudero, who returns for his third stint in the UFC after an absence of more than two years.

Escudero’s game remains much the same as in the past, with a mixture of decent boxing, serviceable wrestling and solid work from the top. He lacks much in the way of athleticism or power, however, and does not make up the gap in output. While his offensive wrestling is good enough to get by, he struggles to stuff his opponents’ takedowns, and he has been submitted on several occasions, albeit by talented grapplers.

The core of Santos’ game is his world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu, which made him a four-time world champion and powered a fourth-place finish at the 2005 Abu Dhabi Combat Club Submission Wrestling World Championships. A topside specialist with a deadly arm-triangle, there are few fighters who can survive on their backs for long against his slick passes and relentless pressure. Santos’ problem, however, is getting the fight to the ground. He pursues takedowns with far more enthusiasm than technical skill and lacks anything resembling effective setups for his shots, with the end result being one completed takedown in 12 attempts during his two-fight UFC tenure. The good news: Santos has improved his striking from subpar to decent, making good use of his long frame to land rangy straight rights and kicks to the body while showing solid movement and instincts in the pocket. The next step would be integrating those strikes with his takedowns, but we have yet to see that from him.

Betting Odds: N/A

The Pick: As unreliable as Escudero’s defensive wrestling has been over the years, it should still be good enough to stuff most of Santos’ attempts, and he is good enough of a striker to hang with the Brazilian should the fight stay on the feet. Still, Santos’ sheer relentlessness in pursuing the takedown, along with his ability to grind in the clinch and surprising striking acumen, should make him the favorite here. Santos by decision is the pick, with a strong possibility of a topside submission if he can execute a takedown.

Next Fight » Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Wendell Oliveira Marques