Tomasz Drwal file photo: Dave Mandel | Sherdog.com
In their last fights, Drwal got his foot put on backward by Rousimar Palhares and Branch made ESPN’s Top Plays after nearly getting slammed back to the Stone Age by Gerald Harris. Making matters worse, a loss in this bout for either man means a UFC pink slip may not be far behind it.
For Branch to keep cashing a Zuffa paycheck he has to learn from the mistakes he made in his bout with Harris -- namely his willingness to pull guard and his gun-shy striking style. Both will cost him against Drwal, who is going to get in his grill and either bust him up in close quarters or from top control. Good as Branch’s grappling game is, trying to win off your back at this level is never a good idea.
Probably the least appreciated aspect of Drwal’s game is that he’s incredibly tough to get away from once he collapses the pocket. A powerful puncher with learned clinch skills, “Gorilla” gets down like Donkey Kong anytime he faces a grappler thanks to his cast-iron base and thudding ground-and-pound. While Branch definitely has the quicker strikes, he doesn’t throw them often enough to keep anyone off of him.
Controlling range is the key to beating Drwal. He will otherwise wade in and turn this into the trench war he thrives on. On the one hand, Branch has the lateral movement to remain elusive, but that will only hold up so long. Throwing the odd high kick or jab isn’t going to thwart Drwal’s bull rush, and I have a hard time seeing how Branch wins this fight save for hitting a hall of fame lock flow.
Branch will threaten Drwal plenty of times, but framing up a few triangles pales in comparison to consistent ground-and-pound on any scorecard. Expect a retread of Branch’s fight with Harris, as Drwal methodically racks up points but fails to match the former stand-up comedian’s brilliant finish. Regardless, the Polish bruiser will walk away with a win and his foot intact.