UFC Fight Night 22 Preview: The Main Card

Jim Miller vs. Gleison Tibau

The greater half of the flying Miller brothers is undoubtedly the forgotten man in the UFC’s lightweight division. The owner of a four-fight UFC win streak, his only losses have come against incumbent champion Frankie Edgar and current No. 1 contender Gray Maynard. To move any further, however, he has to prove that it takes more than a power double leg to beat him, and that’s why Tibau makes for such an interesting opponent.

Warts and all, Tibau is a huge 155-pounder with the kind of bulldozing shot that Miller has yet to prove he can stop. What keeps him from being a hands-down favorite is that for all his raw ability, he often struggles to put all his skills together against quality opposition. However, even when Tibau’s offense stalls out, he can still win top control-fueled decisions on the strength of his unreal athleticism and polished Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

What Miller can offer in this daunting style clash is rapidly improving boxing skills and a far better grasp of how to rack up points. There won’t be any lulls in offense from him when he has control of the bout, but that will require he either score takedowns or stuff Tibau’s attempts to do the same. Against Maynard it was obvious that Miller can be physically overwhelmed, and Tibau can replicate much of what Maynard did.

While Tibau has nowhere near the level of technical wrestling ability as Maynard, it’s not like Maynard wasn’t leaning on his brute physicality to stifle Miller. This bout puts Miller in an identical position -- namely one where he was to overcome a severe physical disadvantage with pure technique and grit. In a five-round fight he’d be a good pick, but Tibau works 15 minutes of top control without missing a beat.

Miller won’t be a passive party in his own defeat, but it’s not like he’s going to show up to the cage as some spectacular defensive wrestler. When Tibau has lost as a lightweight, it’s been because either he couldn’t score takedowns or hold top control after scoring them. That won’t be the case against Miller, as Tibau takes a close but clear decision win.