UFC Fight Night 19 Preview: The Main Card

Carlos Condit vs. Jake Ellenberger

The Breakdown: From the life-isn’t-fair file, Ellenberger will be making his UFC debut on a month’s notice and he has to snuff out the butterflies while surviving the offensive brilliance of Condit. In fairness to Ellenberger, he’s just as aggressive as Condit and has shown power on the feet as well as a dangerous top game when he passes guard. However, like most hyper-aggressive fighters, Ellenberger is hiding some flaws. The most glaring is a porous guard and striking defense that is highlighted by dropping his hands every chance he gets.

The latter is the biggest problem. Condit may not be a kill-shot artist, but he is rangy and accurate while Ellenberger does his best work from close quarters. Should Ellenberger somehow manage to collapse the pocket, Condit’s clinch game is superior and Ellenberger’s finishing skill on takedowns reminds me of watching Carlos Mencia make a joke: They both try real hard but fail spectacularly. Wasting all that effort on poorly executed takedowns leaves Ellenberger vulnerable late, and Condit has the gas tank to take over just as Ellenberger fades. If that happens, Ellenberger’s fade will quickly turn into a flop.

The X Factor: Most of Condit’s success on the feet is built on using his accuracy and versatility to dictate the tempo, but Ellenberger’s speed and power advantage gives him the ability to throw Condit’s rhythm off by moving in and out with flurries. Keeping the pace unpredictable would keep Condit from finding his range and allow Ellenberger to rack up points without turning the fight into a brawl that he would eventually lose. That strategy, however, would take composure that Ellenberger has yet to show. More than anything, he has to stay focused on creating a fight that he can win instead of going kamikaze and getting his head kicked off.

The Bottom Line: Ellenberger is fighting someone who does everything better than him, which leaves few options and numerous problems. It won’t take Condit long to exploit that as he keeps Ellenberger at bay with kicks and straight punches while countering his flurries by working compact hook combos up close. As the damage takes its toll on Ellenberger and he starts losing the steam on his strikes, the difference in skill will become painfully obvious. Bank on seeing plenty of Condit’s Lecter-esque psycho-smile before he notches a lopsided TKO win.