UFC Fight Night 18 Breakdown: The Prelims

Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Horwich

The Breakdown: Even if one of these fighters wants to turn this into a kickboxing match, neither has the wrestling to keep this bout upright for any significant period of time. A jiu-jitsu battle seems more likely, and that heavily favors Almeida’s world-class credentials. A funky style and a flair for submissions has served Horwich well, but unless he can get top position and frustrate Almeida (9-3) with sound top control and strikes, he’s not going to have much luck giving him any grappling lessons.

The X Factor: Almeida thrives on rhythm, and when opponents do anything to disrupt his flow, his whole game suffers -- a story that unfolded for all to see in Almeida’s bout with Patrick Cote. If Horwich (22-11-1) can find a way to short circuit Almeida’s mat dominance, he could pull off what would be a career-changing upset. Whether or not Horwich has the tools to make that strategy work is the question that should be on his cheering section’s mind.

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The Bottom Line: On paper, this is one of the night’s big mismatches, and there’s no hidden variable that has not already been pondered and dismissed. Almeida is the superior grappler, and Horwich does not have anything other than his own grappling to offer the Renzo Gracie protégé. There’s not much in the way of options for Horwich, who ends up playing the three-tap symphony for Almeida.