UFC 99 Preview: The Main Card

Cheick Kongo vs. Cain Velasquez

The Breakdown: While fans wait with baited breath for a long overdue conclusion to the Brock Lesnar/Frank Mir heavyweight title saga, the forward thinking fight aficionado can only wonder who will be first on the soon to be crowned heavyweight king’s docket. The answer will likely come via this fight as Cheick Kongo has gone from afterthought to contender amidst a dearth of high-end talent while Cain Velasquez’s super-prospect billing has been cemented by a string of bulldozing performances. What defines this bout, however, is the clash between Velasquez’s army of takedowns and Kongo’s precision-tuned striking.

It’s hardly news worthy to say that Kongo struggles to defend takedowns, watching him lose a decision to Carmelo Marrero sums it up best, and Velasquez has the game to drive him into the mat whenever he pleases. Although Kongo has found success in the past using a surprisingly active guard, Velasquez’s top control is all but immune to Kongo’s grade school guard game. Unless Kongo can keep this fight upright by taking away Velasquez’s base with leg kicks, he’ll be stuck trying to pull off parlor tricks on the mat against a guy who likes the “pick any card” game about as much I like keyboard cat and his omni-present threat of musical embarrassment.

The X Factor: Velasquez, like most hotshot prospects, has always been willing to throw down standing because he’s never had a reason to fear doing so. That paradigm shifts now as he’ll get a face full of French fist if he tries to prove his mettle on Kongo’s terms. We already know that Velasquez is talented, this fight will show us if he has any sense upstairs.

The Bottom Line: I’ve seen plenty of prospects jump headfirst into career oblivion like a well-trained lemming but, Velasquez is hardly reckless in the cage and Kongo has never been a kill-shot kind of striker. Even if Kongo scores some points on the feet, he’ll only be sending Velasquez the message the he needs to keep it simple and rely on his wrestling. From there, it won’t be long before Kongo finds his usual tricks will only make the hole he’s in deeper as Velasquez takes that figurative hole and turns it into a literal one with his blitzing brand of ground and pound.