UFC 98 Preview: The Main Card

Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra

The Breakdown: A fading UFC titan takes on one of the most unlikely champions ever as Hughes enters what he calls his last fight with two lifetimes’ worth of fistic accolades and one unsettled grudge with Serra. While Serra does hold a win over Georges St. Pierre, who holds a win over Hughes, he has yet to rediscover that magic and is on the verge of becoming a trivia answer instead of a legitimate welterweight contender. To send Hughes off into the night on a sour note, Serra will have to force Hughes out of his usual ground-and-pound routine.

Serra’s striking consists of little more than power punches and the gusto to throw them freely, but Hughes has always been vulnerable on the feet and has never had the chin to hold up against a power puncher. The tradeoff is that despite Serra’s reputation as a world-class grappler, he has never been a submission ace in MMA and Hughes has smothered some of the very best grapplers the UFC has to offer. If this turns into a grappling bout, Serra’s lacking wrestling and ineffectual guard work will leave him with a taxed gas tank and no fuel to load up on those chin-checking hooks.

The X Factor: Both fighters are coming off major injuries. Serra has wrestled with back injuries while Hughes is coming off a torn MCL and partially torn PCL that he suffered in his knockout loss to Thiago Alves. With Hughes admittedly in the twilight of his career, you have to wonder how he’ll handle coming back from such a severe injury, especially when it comes time for him to drive into his takedowns. Likewise for Serra, who will be a sitting duck if his back isn’t ready to absorb Hughes’ trademark slams. One way or another, we’re getting a lot of questions answered in this one and many of the answers won’t be pleasant.

The Bottom Line: It’s a gamble taking either fighter. Hughes, assuming his knees haven’t turned into country grits, has the stylistic advantage over Serra, who doesn’t have the strength or cardio to hold up against Hughes’ soul-sapping ground-and-pound. Barring another Hail Mary hook by Serra, he simply doesn’t have much to offer offensively, especially against a wrestler who can take him down and impose a no-frills top-control game on him. It won’t be the kind of match that the heated verbal back and forth has the masses expecting, but it will be vintage Hughes. He’ll notch a one-sided decision to close out one of the most storied Octagon careers we’ve ever seen.