UFC 96 Breakdown: The Main Card

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Carwin

Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’1/242 lbs.
Age: 29
Hometown: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Fighting out of: Ludlow, Mass.
Team: Team Link
Record: 10-3

The breakdown: Unless one wears some anti-bear battle suit, it’s not a good idea to get into a game of fisticuffs with Carwin. If Gonzaga wants to regain his UFC mojo, he needs to focus on making better use of his top-tier jiu-jitsu game. While Carwin’s size and wrestling background make scoring a takedown unlikely, Gonzaga should have no problem pulling guard or goading Carwin into a takedown as long as he ditches the striking in favor of the clinch.

From there, Carwin’s brute physicality will be no match for Gonzaga’s hard-earned jiu-jitsu credentials. Gonzaga has to stay mindful of controlling Carwin’s posture; even a brief ground-and-pound flurry from the Colorado man-beast will be enough to prove that old nugget about black belts only covering so much of one’s rear.

The X factor: Typically, Gonzaga likes to find a rhythm on the feet, and while that strategy will always work against fighters like Josh Hendricks, the same approach cost him dearly against Fabricio Werdum at UFC 80. Going off in search of a stand-up war with Carwin might earn Gonzaga the UFC’s Darwin award.

Shane Carwin Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’3/265 lbs.
Age: 34
Hometown: Greeley, Colo.
Fighting out of: Denver
Team: T’s KO/Jackson’s MMA
Record: 10-0

The breakdown: What’s worked best for Carwin thus far has been pounding out opponents, standing or on the mat. The second part of that strategy has to go out the window against Gonzaga, who would love nothing more than to turn another inexperienced wrestler into a living licorice twist.

Carwin needs to use his wrestling and strength advantage to bully Gonzaga as he pressures him with constant blows from close quarters. Gonzaga is surprisingly effective from a distance thanks to his leg kicks, but he struggles when opponents get too close for comfort.

The X factor: With just 10 fights worth of professional experience -- and all of it against the heavyweight division’s lesser talent -- it’s anyone’s guess how Carwin will react to a Scott Bakula-level quantum leap in competition. Carwin is used to being the boss come fight time, and how he adjusts to an actual struggle will say a lot about how he fares.

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The bottom line: For a guy with totally unproven jiu-jitsu, Carwin actually has the right style to beat Gonzaga. In the past, Gonzaga has always struggled when opponents muscle him around and force him to work harder than he wants. That’s the exact strategy Carwin will use to announce his presence in the suddenly relevant UFC heavyweight division.