UFC 94 Breakdown: The Undercard

Chris Wilson vs. John Howard

Chris “The Professor” Wilson Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’1/170 lbs.
Age: 31
Hometown: Portland, Ore.
Fighting out of: Portland, Ore.
Record: 14-4 (1 NC)

The stakes: An unexpected face in the welterweight crowd, Wilson distinguished himself right out the gate when he gave then No. 1 contender Jon Fitch a surprising run for his money at UFC 82. A subsequent drubbing of American Top Team’s Steve Bruno has Wilson looking like a serious threat to anyone in the division. If that distinction is going to hold water, however, Wilson needs to prove that he should be fighting on main cards and not taking on the John Howards of the world in dark matches.

The breakdown: Wilson’s supreme versatility and fight IQ make him a tough match for anyone, but against Howard, he’ll have to be particularly aware of controlling the tempo and terms of the bout. While Howard’s record hardly lights up a room, he’s quite effective from the top position, and Wilson’s inability to keep Fitch from pursuing such a gameplan is what cost him that fight. A steady diet of sprawls and strikes should be on Wilson’s mind come fight time.

John “Doomsday” Howard Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’7/170 lbs.
Age: 25
Hometown: Boston
Fighting out of: Boston
Record: 10-4

The stakes: Much like Wilson in his UFC debut, Howard enters the Octagon as an unknown and heavy underdog. It’s a distinction Howard should use to his advantage by going for broke, because playing it safe will get him sent back to the regional circuit in a hurry. Of course, notching a win over a respected veteran like Wilson would land Howard the opportunities he needs to distinguish himself under the UFC banner.

The breakdown: If nothing else, Howard needs to stay focused on crowding Wilson and bullying his way towards takedowns. It’s the only hope he has of winning, as any striking exchanges will favor Wilson -- who holds a significant height and reach advantage, as well as an edge in being the fundamentally superior striker. With that said, Wilson has struggled when forced to work off his back against a disciplined opponent -- the very strategy Howard will likely look to mimic.


* * *

The bottom line: Unless you have a serious wrestling pedigree and the cross-training to back it up, banking on taking down Wilson makes about as much sense as buying stock right now. Howard does not have the wrestling chops to get the job done against Wilson, who will likely pick him apart standing in much the same way he did Bruno. Look for another methodical dissection from Wilson, who scores a knockout late in the second round.