UFC 169 ‘Barao vs. Faber 2’ Preview

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Heavyweights

Frank Mir (16-8, 14-8 UFC) vs. Alistair Overeem (36-13, 1-2 UFC)

The Matchup: For heavyweights as well-known as Mir and Overeem, there is no such thing as a slump buster, at least not inside the Octagon. No matter how hard the road has been, there will be no Nikita Krylov, Phil de Fries or Walt Harris served up as a much needed self-esteem boost. Both Mir and Overeem are well-compensated former champions, and both will be treated as such.

With that said, this pairing seems far crueler for Mir than it does for Overeem, who at least has been in control -- or on the verge of finishing -- at times in recent losses to Antonio Silva and Travis Browne. Mir, on the other hand, has been largely overwhelmed against Junior dos Santos, Daniel Cormier and Josh Barnett. No one would have objected had Mir been matched with a middling wrestler type for his next outing.

Instead, he gets Overeem, who is just as capable -- if not more so -- of savaging the Las Vegas resident in the clinch than Barnett or Cormier. In fact, Overeem’s knees in close quarters might very well be some of the best in the business. Just ask Browne, who cried out in pain as “The Demolition Man” assaulted his body with early knees at UFC Fight Night 26.

While Browne surprisingly survived Overeem’s onslaught and rallied to front kick the Dutchman into oblivion, Mir is less likely to hold up under similar heavy fire. A long career of battles and beatings has taken its toll on the submission specialist, and he will become increasingly vulnerable to knockouts the longer he competes. Against any heavyweight, that figures to be a problem. Against Overeem, that is near-guaranteed disaster.

For all of his flaws, namely faulty conditioning and an infuriating arrogance, Overeem remains as sharp and as technical a striker as there is in the division, for as long as his gas tank holds up. Browne was able to take advantage of his tendency to lean forward by landing the front kicks consistently, but Mir, whose newfound kicking game surfaced briefly against Cormier, probably lacks the proficiency to follow a similar blueprint.

That, of course, leaves the ground game, but Mir has been able to spend precious little time on the mat in his last three losses. Overeem’s generally stout takedown defense makes him no easy mark. In fact, the former Strikeforce titlist could elect to turn the tables on Mir and score takedowns of his own. From above, he has heavy ground-and-pound and an underrated submission game. It is still more likely that Overeem will choose to remain standing rather than risk testing Mir’s guard.

The Pick: Recent history would indicate that the longer Mir can last, the better his chances will be. Unfortunately for him, recent history also indicates that he will not be able to last long against a properly focused Overeem. The Dutchman takes this by KO or TKO in round one.

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