Some view Rory MacDonald as a future champion at 170 pounds. | Photo: D. Mandel/Sherdog.com
Welterweights
Rory MacDonald (15-1, 6-1 UFC) vs. Robbie Lawler (21-9, 6-3 UFC)While the Tristar Gym product utilized his jab with great accuracy and consistency at UFC on Fox 8, it was basically the only type of offense he employed. Part of that was Ellenberger’s fault. The heavy-handed Nebraskan never forced the issue with any urgency, and as a result, he spent the duration of the bout eating punches from MacDonald at a safe range. Still, UFC President Dana White is unlikely to roll out the welcome wagon for a fighter content to win on points, as MacDonald appeared to be that night.
In previous fights, the 24-year-old Canadian has displayed a far more versatile arsenal, using well-rounded kickboxing, wrestling and forceful ground-and-pound to propel him to victory. Like his celebrated training partner, Georges St. Pierre, MacDonald knows how to adhere to the strategy best suited to achieving success. Much to the chagrin of the bloodthirsty fan, that can also involve adopting a more conservative approach as the opposition becomes more daunting.
Lawler is similar to Ellenberger in the fact that he has serious knockout power and a strong base that allows him to keep fights standing. He is 2-0 in Octagon since returning to 170 pounds, including a surprising stoppage of Josh Kocheck at UFC 157. The win was even more significant considering how the American Top Team product had struggled against wrestling-minded opponents at middleweight. Lawler already had a strong upper body and a solid sprawl, but if he is able to remain upright consistently in a new division, he becomes that much more dangerous. “Ruthless” will have to live up to his moniker if he is to get in striking range against MacDonald. “Ares” is not likely to try and outwrestle Lawler, because doing so would leave him open to the Illinois native’s vaunted counterpunching prowess.
Lorenz Larkin was able to keep Lawler off-balance with a multi-faceted striking attack. Thanks to a two-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, the aforementioned jab and the potential to land kicks to the legs, body and head, MacDonald may opt for a similar approach.
Do not expect Lawler to allow MacDonald to get comfortable as Ellenberger did, however. Having been stopped by strikes just once in a lengthy career, Lawler has the confidence in his chin to try and force a brawl. If he can land something significant early and fluster the younger fighter, the tide may very well turn in his favor.
The Pick: One of MacDonald’s greatest assets is his intelligence; he simply will not be baited into fighting Lawler’s kind of fight. MacDonald wins by decision.
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