UFC 138 Preview: The Main Card
Alves vs. Abedi
Thiago Alves has secured more than half of his victories by KO
or TKO. | Photo: Dave Mandel
Welterweights
Thiago Alves (18-8, 10-5 UFC) vs. Papy Abedi (8-0, 0-0 UFC)
The Matchup: Contenders who have lost one-sided title shots and key elimination bouts occupy a curious position in MMA’s pecking order. In general, they are still betting favorites against anyone but the elite of the division, yet are so far away from getting a second crack at the belt that the only plausible course of action is to keep matching them tough in hopes of either creating a new contender or giving them a chance to generate momentum for another title run. Alves fits that definition precisely. The American Top Team welterweight remains one of the best standup artists in the division and a tough nut to crack, especially that he now seems to have his weight issues in check. Though he has gone 1-3 in recent outings, those losses are all decision setbacks to champion Georges St. Pierre and then Jon Fitch and Rick Story.
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One obvious hole in Abedi’s standup game is his tendency to go straight back when avoiding strikes, a troublesome trait for anyone and especially bad for a southpaw. He will need to have corrected that or Alves will exploit it by tossing off hard straight counters, following punches with booming kicks as Abedi retreats. Abedi’s experience on the competitive grappling and judo circuits might suggest his best tactic is to take down Alves. However, Alves’ ability to shuck off clinches and resist being grounded-and-pounded are pretty sound. Only top-notch wrestlers with exceptionally good takedowns and top games are going to take and physically dominate him. No one can be certain if Abedi is there yet.
In short, this is a bit of a throw-him-in-there-and-see-what-happens fight for Abedi. If he wins, he will have to show a special blend of first-timer composure and game planning against Alves. Despite his decision loss to Story, Alves still had a solid showing. He displayed good stamina in the final round, cracking some big shots off Story’s jaw and really battling until the end in a fight that was hard-nosed and fast-paced. Plus, his combination of whipsaw kicks and strong punches remain outstanding weapons.
Alves loves to feast on opponents who offer openings for his kicks, particularly when they are not confident enough to breach the gap and try to close the distance, something at which Fitch and GSP are masters, hence their one-sided dominations of Alves. However, Abedi has not shown he is at that level yet. Alves’ counter right hand and punching will have to set the table early; he will probably be a little hesitant to bank heavily on kicks early, as he figures out Papi’s timing and standup, which typically consists of pushing forward and tossing off punches followed by a heavy straight left down the pipe.
Alves is such a talented fighter that we tend to focus on his faults a bit much, given his penchant for seemingly underachieving given his obvious potential; this kind of matchup will remind everyone why people have set the bar so high on him. He will counter Abedi’s attempts to engage and close the gap with sharp counterpunches, throwing kicks into the mix once Abedi eats some hard counter shots. Even if Abedi manages to get it to the ground, Alves has a great ability to scramble and negate positional improvements, eventually getting back to his feet without taking too much punishment.
The Pick: Alves does not spend a lot of time in top position on the ground because he prefers to stand and strike, but his jiu-jitsu game is especially good. He will drop Abedi with a counterstrike in the second round after winning the first by evading and punishing him. Alves wins by second-round knockout after a ground-and-pound assault prompts the stoppage.
Finish Reading » Next Fight: Terry Etim vs. Eddie Faaloloto
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