UFC 121 Preview: The Main Card

Welterweights
Paulo Thiago (No. 7 WW) vs. Diego Sanchez

The Matchup: In a perfectly fair world, guys like Sanchez would have a proper weight class somewhere between lightweight and welterweight. Instead, the winner of “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 1 finds himself facing hard choices. Too big to cut to 155 effectively and yet undersized for 170, Sanchez has returned to the welterweight division despite the size disadvantage.

After losing a one-sided bout to talented John Hathaway at May’s UFC 114, the question presented itself more than ever, as Sanchez seemed out of sorts, adrift and unable to apply his high-pressure style due to an obvious size disadvantage. The Sanchez we saw there was a faint echo of the imposing guy who piled up a five-fight winning streak after dominating Kenny Florian to win the Spike TV reality show in April 2005. Have today’s fighters gotten that much better or did Sanchez merely hit a stylistic speedbump in Hathaway? This fight should provide some answers.

In contrast to Sanchez’ high-energy, all-in style, Thiago is the quintessential cool cat taking a measured approach. He isn’t afraid to get hit, makes high-percentage moves on the ground and has a textbook grappling game, underwritten with a solid understanding of how to get out of trouble while putting the other guy in it.

It also says a lot about his resilience that, in his first UFC fight, he was basically getting thrashed around by Josh Koscheck before a stunning turnaround via uppercut earned him a KO win. He then was rewarded with a match against uber-grinder Jon Fitch, losing a one-sided decision. He has since rebounded against lesser competition, going 2-1 and showing his wares with decent stand-up, including a slick submission of Mike Swick. Neither of these guys is a killer on the feet, and both will be confident in bringing it to the ground, Thiago looking for submissions, Sanchez trying to ground-and-pound.

The Pick: This should be an interesting back-and-forth battle, as both look to press the advantage early. In prime form, Sanchez still has a pretty solid game of clinches, scrambles and transitions, which he uses effectively to put opponents on the defensive and rough them up. Thiago will have to blunt Sanchez’s attempts to turn it into a high-paced bout, mix up effective strikes and use openings in the scrambles to his advantage.

Thiago will also have to take away Sanchez’s confidence early and deny him momentum. Expect a series of scrambles, reversals and some rollicking back-and-forth stand-up in spurts. This will come down to a close decision, however, and Thiago’s size and coolness under fire will earn him a victory on points.