Matt Serra (top) file photo: Dave Mandel | Sherdog.com
Usually, a fight between two 36-year-olds with UFC records hovering around the .500 mark means someone is being lined up for a pink slip. Then again, there aren’t many 36-year-olds as popular as Serra and Lytle. Besides the cache these two hold with fans both committed and casual, this match is an opportunity for them to resolve once and for all the disputed decision Serra took over Lytle at “The Ultimate Fighter 4” finale.
That fight is undoubtedly best remembered for the chain reaction it set off that culminated with Serra having his own Buster Douglas moment and briefly holding the UFC welterweight title. However, the decision he took over Lytle to set that table was marred by controversy, as many observers scored it in favor of “Lights Out.” While some of those same observers are expecting a replay of that first bout, the truth is that we are dealing with two very different fighters than the ones who locked horns in Las Vegas nearly four years ago.
Talent and skill were never problems for Lytle, but his willingness to use them was often erratic at best. Since then he’s turned into a bonus check regular with daring performances that disregard strategy in favor of all-out offense. That sort of go-for-broke style got him into some bad situations with Kevin Burns and Matt Brown, forcing come-from-behind rallies out of the native Hoosier.
Against Serra the mistakes Lytle has been making of late will likely get him knocked out well before he has a chance to cash a bonus check. Despite being the first American black belt under Renzo Gracie, Serra was never a dominant grappler in MMA. He has finally embraced his greatest weapon, though: an atomic rear right hook. It’s an unusual punch from the orthodox stance, but Serra knows how to set it up, as evidenced by his surprisingly patient dissection of Frank Trigg.
Of course, Lytle poses a great many more problems than Trigg. A close watching of his recent bouts reveals some bad habits on defense, however, that could cost him against any breed of power puncher. The most obvious of which being his tendency to carry his hands low and lunge in for body shots. Now, working the body is something that simply isn’t done enough in MMA, but it does require a certain level of technique to do so without leaving yourself wide open for counters.
More often than not, Lytle just reaches in with a combination to the body and then pulls straight back out with his head exposed the whole time. It takes uncommon reflexes to get away with that, and Lytle just doesn’t have them. Should Lytle pursue a striking match with Serra, those defensive issues combined with his fading hand speed and power put him at a serious disadvantage no matter how much the booth makes of his marginal boxing experience.
It may sound like an odd conclusion, but any mixed martial artist with a big punch and the patience to set it up properly is going to give Lytle fits. While he has always been a predominantly stand-up fighter, Lytle does have a funky submission game that has netted him many an unusual submission win. Unfortunately for him, Serra isn’t the guy to try and hit a mounted triangle kimura on.
You’re not going to see him bust out much in the way of high-level MMA grappling, but Serra is still incredibly difficult to work against on the mat. His defense is tight, and he’s very difficult to get down in the first place. After all this is the same guy that bullied Matt Hughes to the floor, and Lytle has never been a particularly good wrestler -- if anything, it’s always been his biggest weakness.
No one should be surprised if Serra hits outside leg trips from the body lock on a consistent basis and Lytle fails to get his guard game working against him. However, Serra isn’t going to give up on the chance to work his hands against a willing opponent. As tough and durable as Lytle is, I struggle to think of any welterweight who can eat Serra’s right hand on a regular basis.
The fact of the matter is that Serra is a much tougher style clash for Lytle than anyone seems to be giving him credit for. It would take an unusually disciplined approach for Lytle to win this fight, and he’d still have to be careful to not cross into the outright conservatism that cost him the first match. Much more likely is him coming right at Serra and getting the worst of a wild fight that ends with a Fight of the Night bonus but no winner’s purse.