UFC 117 Preview: The Main Card

Clay Guida vs. Rafael dos Anjos

Reclaiming relevance in a lightweight division full of mutant shark-gorillas is on Guida’s mind against human origami enthusiast dos Anjos. A tall task considering the last time Guida tried to take on some of the division’s premier grapplers -- namely Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez -- he lost enough blood to turn the Octagon red.

The issue with Guida’s manic ground-and-pound style is that he seems unsure of what to do against opponents fully capable of tapping him out. What often happens is that Guida ends up getting into a predominantly stand-up fight that he is not built to win. While dos Anjos is hardly some fearsome kill-shot artist, he is a southpaw with solid boxing and no one in their right mind wants any part of his leg kicks.

Looking at Guida’s fight with Florian, it’s obvious he had trouble dealing with the New Englander’s southpaw stance, which culminated in him walking right into a two-piece that basically ended the fight. What really leads to Guida’s troubles on the feet, though, is his own predictability. Prone to whipping the occasional leg kick before rushing forward with a 1-2 and diving for a leg, Guida makes himself an easy target for counters by using such a rehearsed offensive strategy.

What Guida does do well is stay tight from top control and keep a busy enough pace to avoid getting stood up. However, he often has trouble retaining his base against superior grapplers who know how to make him uncomfortable. In past bouts dos Anjos has used the butterfly guard and leg lock attacks quite well to disrupt the offense of ground-and-pound-minded opponents. He should be able to replicate that success against “The Carpenter.”

This is all assuming Guida can get dos Anjos on the mat, which is far more up for debate than many seem to think. Guida scores the bulk of his takedowns against opponents who give ground and end up pressed against the cage. Dos Anjos, however, tends to stay in the center of the cage and has shown solid wrestling throughout his UFC run.

Really, neither fighter is a particularly technical wrestler. They both rely more on explosive shots than erudite fundamentals. That leaves a fight where takedowns could be readily exchanged or, and this is far more likely, a fight where Guida foolishly attempts to make up for his deficiencies with unvarnished aggression. That approach only plays into dos Anjos’ hands, as he is far more capable of ending this fight than Guida.

That last bit is what should push this fight in the Brazilian’s favor. Guida doesn’t have the tools to stop elite competition while dos Anjos’ grappling is a Submission of the Night award waiting to happen. I’m expecting a more competitive version of Guida’s bout with Florian, but one that still ends with the wild-haired wrestler tapping out.