UFC 115 Preview: The Main Card

Carlos Condit vs. Rory MacDonald

Igniting the violence-palooza of the pay-per-view card is a critical welterweight tilt pitting the perpetually mean-mugging Carlos Condit against Canadian wunderkind Rory MacDonald. As with any fight involving Condit, my first instinct is to pick him via Ghost Rider penance stare. However, MacDonald is actually a tough style matchup.

Topping the list of reasons why Condit has stalled out in the middle of the UFC’s welterweight hierarchy is his takedown defense. Being built like Manute Bol makes defending an ankle pick borderline impossible. Normally Condit makes up the difference with aggressive guard work, but since coming to the UFC, he’s had to settle for working a defensive figure-four guard against the more submission savvy competition he’s coming up against. The problem with that approach is it neutralizes Condit’s offense and he isn’t diligent about controlling the head, which leaves him exposed to ground-and-pound anyway.

Against MacDonald those same problems become even more pronounced. Condit’s Canadian quarry is an excellent guard passer and constantly shifts around his hips and posture, which makes locking him down even more difficult. Given the problems Condit had controlling Martin Kampmann and Jake Ellenberger from the guard, he’s going to need an aristeia-level performance to corral MacDonald’s jiu-jitsu. Should MacDonald get past guard, some of the idiosyncrasies in Condit’s grappling will become apparent, as he tends to expose his back and go for poorly planned leg-locks whenever he loses full guard.

Those are all mistakes that MacDonald will cash in on given the opportunity. That means Condit has to force the issue on the feet. Temporarily ignoring the fact that MacDonald can score takedowns at will on him, Condit is the more versatile striker. His long reach and pointed clinch game make him effective both at range and in close-quarters. However, MacDonald is the more fundamentally sound boxer and Condit’s defense is weak inside the pocket, where both Ellenberger and Kampmann were able to land combinations upstairs before changing levels for takedowns.

When dropping for those takedowns MacDonald needs to be wary of where Condit is, as he often keeps his back against the cage to help him defend takedowns and cage walk. A stuffed takedown for Condit means a chance to clamp onto the clinch, where MacDonald won’t escape unscathed. How well Condit can use the cage to boost his takedown defense and draw MacDonald into exchanges is the one variable to look out for early. Condit will have serious problems if he can’t make it happen.

Condit has had some success with that tact, but nowhere near enough, as both of his UFC bouts have shown the limitations of his all-offense/zero-defense ethic. The never-ending story continues: MacDonald will break even on the feet with Condit and dominate on the mat with his wrestling en route to a decision win.