UFC 114 Preview: The Prelims

Melvin Guillard vs. Waylon Lowe

Getting called up to the UFC is nearly every fighter’s dream, but sometimes it comes at a price. In the case of newcomer Waylon Lowe, the price to be paid is fighting the bundle of fast-twitch muscle fibers known as Melvin Guillard on less than three weeks’ notice. The lack of preparation isn’t even the most troubling aspect of this fight for Lowe, as no amount of training will change the fact that he is a wrestler and taking down Guillard is like trying to make friends with a cobra.

Setting aside his recent starching of a faded Steve Berger, Lowe has always been a power wrestler with questionable submission defense and middling offensive skills from top control. The former is irrelevant considering Guillard goes for submissions once every millennium, but the latter is damning given Guillard’s recent bouts with Gleison Tibau and Ronnys Torres. The New Orleans native won both of those bouts not only because of his takedown defense but also his ability to quickly escape to the feet when taken down.

The reason Guillard is so hard to hold down is that he starts clearing his hips before his opponent can secure top control. From there it’s a matter of time before he either shrimps out or cage-walks back to the feet. While it wouldn’t be surprising if Lowe did score a few takedowns (Guillard’s telegraphed strikes leave him exposed), it would be stunning if he managed to do anything with them. Reason being that Lowe tends to try and posture up inside the guard so he can generate more power on his strikes, which only gives Guillard the space he needs to escape.

Once the Houdini routine plays itself out, it’s nothing but bad news for Lowe. His recent improvements on the feet are still not enough against Guillard. A southpaw with handspeed and power is a magical combination, but Lowe also has some major defensive liabilities that play to Guillard’s strengths: He carries his hands low and stands heavy on his lead leg. Ironically the same holds true for Guillard, but his freakish reflexes cover up those flaws while Lowe has no such camouflage.

He doesn’t have Guillard’s versatility on the feet either. Lowe’s attack is pure close-quarters boxing while Guillard is effective from any range, whether it be inside the clinch with knees and elbows or from outside the pocket, where he can measure kicks and time his Nolan Ryan-esque overhand right. Just as important is Guillard’s training with Greg Jackson, which has made him a more patient fighter and thus less likely to have the Darwin moments that he used to find himself on the wrong end of. In the past it almost felt like opponents could wait on Guillard to beat himself, but if his fight with Torres was any indication, he is at least trying to develop the sense of strategy that was always missing from his game.

The altogether unexpected renaissance continues for Guillard in this one. Lowe simply won’t be able to secure the top control he can’t win this fight without. It’s easy to envision Guillard catching Lowe coming in with something atomic, but just as likely is Guillard hitting a whizzer and dropping some gashing ground-and-pound.