UFC 112 Preview: The Main Card

Matt Hughes vs. Renzo Gracie

The Breakdown: I can only assume this fight is being made because no one told the folks in Abu Dhabi that Matt Hughes and Renzo Gracie have seen better days. Then again, there’s nothing wrong with some old-school flavor and you can expect plenty of that familiar taste in this one, for better or worse.

At the most simplistic level, this fight comes down to whether or not Gracie can tap out Hughes from the guard. Even though the Illinois farm boy isn’t quite the genetic anomaly he used to be, Hughes can still take down one-dimensional grapplers all day and just about any Gracie fits that bill. From top control Hughes is notoriously hard to submit thanks to his concrete base and stultifying top control, but even more important is the fact that Gracie has never been a dynamic guard player.

Even moving Hughes on the mat takes a world of skill. Actually catching him in a submission is borderline impossible unless you get him down first. Gracie can’t manage that feat, and his striking is still way too barebones for him to even consider trying to beat Hughes on the feet. It wouldn’t matter much anyway since Hughes never passes up a takedown in favor of striking.

So at the end of the day you’re left with Gracie banking on a miracle from the guard against one of the most dominant top-control fighters of all time. While no one is saying that Gracie has no chance, whatever chance he does have better show up in 15 minutes or less come fight time.

The Bottom Line: For the umpteenth time, Hughes will prove that he is better than any one-dimensional grappler the UFC can throw at him. A spirited effort is about all Gracie’s fans will get as he proves simply incapable of getting anything going from the guard against Hughes’ Fort Leavenworth-style lockdown.