D. Mandel/Sherdog.com
The Breakdown: Erudite game-planning and strategy has finally become a part of any successful training camp, but that doesn’t mean all successful fighters have embraced becoming equal parts brains and brawn. Both Swick and Thiago have entrenched themselves as top 10 welterweights, and both fighters have some maddening habits that will cost one of them a win come Saturday night.
Thiago’s spectacular knockout of Josh Koscheck at UFC 95 doesn’t change the fact that whenever he throws his jab or right cross, he drops his defense and is especially vulnerable to the right cross whether thrown as a counter or a lead. The right cross is one of Swick’s best weapons, and he also has a compact counter left hook that kept him alive in his fight with Dan Hardy at UFC 105.
What keeps Swick from being an academic pick is that despite his rangy frame, his nonexistent jab makes his preposterous reach advantage useless. That flaw plays into Thiago’s game. The Brazilian never hesitates to initiate exchanges and, while his defense is indeed flawed, his punching combinations are tight and his chin managed to survive the stress test that is Koscheck’s overhand doom-hammer.
How this fight plays out depends heavily on Thiago’s ability, or lack thereof, to beat Swick to the punch and avoid getting counterpunched into unconsciousness. Relying on his Brazilian jiu-jitsu may seem like a tempting option, but Swick is borderline impossible to take down. The AKA-trained fighter has a strong base and clinch skills that allow him to quickly dig in for underhooks and work his back toward the cage.
The other obstacle to Thiago turning Swick into a postmodern art installation is that Swick excels at using underhooks to create leverage and reverse takedowns. While Thiago’s top control can be nasty, his guard game consists mostly of going for hopeless guillotine or brabo chokes and giving up his back in a misguided attempt to create scrambles.
Short of showing up to the cage with a commission-approved battle axe, Thiago’s only real hope consists of trying to survive in the pocket with a guy who only needs to land one punch. Even if Swick does have trouble on the feet, he can take this fight to the mat far more easily than Thiago can.
Granted, Swick lacks the technical sheen to string together takedown attempts and mostly relies on a slick outside leg trip, but Thiago hasn’t shown much in the way of takedown defense. In other words, Thiago will have to fight on Swick’s terms, and those terms are looking about as appealing as a Michael Buble concert.
The Bottom Line: Thiago may have the power and the chin to strike with Swick, but he just doesn’t have the skill. It won’t be long before Swick starts timing his left hook counter and sneaking the right cross in behind it while Thiago struggles to get a combination off without getting cracked halfway through.
Sooner or later, Thiago will go into survival mode. He’ll start diving for takedowns that Swick will simply stuff or reverse. Rinse and repeat a few times over, and Swick ends up with a ho-hum unanimous decision win.