UFC 107 Preview: The Main Card

Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce

The Breakdown: Thanks to injuries sustained by both Ricardo Almeida and Thiago Alves, Fitch now has to tangle with a twice-beaten prospect in the Wrestlemania match of the night. With future challengers to Georges St. Pierre’s welterweight crown in short supply, this could be the match that catapults Pierce into contention or keeps alive Fitch’s hopes of a rematch with the Canadian phenom.

This fight will come down to who performs as the better wrestler, since Fitch and Pierce rely on the top control special to make their living. The former, however, has proven far better at finishing his takedowns and establishing top control than Pierce, who struggled mightily to corral Brock Larson at UFC Fight Night 19 and wasted a lot of cardio on second- and third-effort takedowns.

In addition, Fitch seems much better equipped to handle stalemates, as his dirty boxing and overall striking skills have improved vastly over time. Pierce, by comparison, relies mostly on throwing powerful individual strikes that are too telegraphed to land with any consistency. Few saw Pierce’s match with Justin Haskins at WEC 39, but his takedowns were stifled for two rounds before a miracle left hook saved him from a decision loss. If taking down Haskins was too tall a task for Pierce, imagine him trying to out-wrestle Fitch.

The X-Factor: Like any bundle of fast-twitch muscle fibers, Pierce can throw hellacious punches, and he has put more than a few fighters to sleep with his overhand right and left hook. Fitch absorbed a borderline criminal beating from St. Pierre in their bout at UFC 87, but that does not mean he can afford to get into any reckless exchanges with Pierce. Look alive anytime these two trade strikes because Pierce will always be a split-second away from dropping the hammer.

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The Bottom Line: Banking on Pierce knocking out Fitch seems about as wise as hiring Roman Polanski as your daughter’s babysitter. In other words, Fitch takes this one by unanimous decision after three rounds of vintage ground-and-pound.