The X-Factor: Neer’s guard remains the most underappreciated part of his game, and Tibau must prepare himself for it. Normally content to score takedowns and work plodding top control, Tibau will not have that luxury against Neer and needs to bring more to the table than his security blanket jiu-jitsu style. Failing that, Tibau better hope the commission approves his request for two mulligans per round.
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The Bottom Line: On paper, Tibau looks like the money pick here based on his takedowns and top control, but Dungeons and Dragons this is not. Neer will make Tibau work for every minute this fight lasts, and his cardio alone gives him a key advantage come gut-check time. It will not be easy early, but Neer will come from behind and edge out a split decision based on aggression -- and a cool nickname.