UFC 101 Preview: The Main Card

Anderson Silva (24-4) vs. Forrest Griffin (16-5)

The Breakdown: After watching Georges St. Pierre and Fedor Emelianenko bolster their claims to pound-for-pound supremacy, Silva now has a chance to perhaps put the debate to rest with his latest foray into the 205-pound realm. It comes against Griffin, the division’s former champion. With his own status in the division at stake, Griffin can ill afford a misstep against a middleweight who has yet to prove his worth at a weight “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 1 winner was once poised to rule over. Keeping that in mind, Griffin has to use his size advantage to tax Silva’s cardio, as his usual striking strategy would serve as a competitive death sentence against the precision-tuned violence Silva brings to the cage. While Silva has been more conservative than Glenn Beck lately, he only needs a willing dance partner to return to his Baryshnikov-meets-Manson routine.

Griffin’s best bet is to get Silva on his back and force him to work for every point he gets. Given the size disparity involved here, it may only be a matter of time before Silva’s conditioning literally breaks under Griffin’s weight. Although Silva’s guard is hardly useless, trying to make up the size difference with skill will be a dicey proposition, considering Griffin’s ground game remains the ace he keeps up his sleeve. All told, most of Griffin’s success is owed to his strict game planning and borderline masochistic dedication to the gym. Whether or not you can prepare for Silva in the gym is the question Griffin will have on his mind come fight time.

The X Factor: In his light heavyweight debut, Silva starched James Irvin like a cheap shirt and put to rest the notion that his power would abandon him in his move up the weight ladder. That should concern Griffin, who may be tougher than an IRS audit but does not have the chin to hold up under heavy fire. If you’re going to beat Silva, you cannot expect to shut down his offense completely, which means proving you can survive an exchange without some involuntary rhinoplasty. Everyone knows Griffin is a willing participant, but his chin does not match his heart.

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The Bottom Line: This will not be easy one way or the other. Silva’s striking is too slick to be stymied, and Griffin’s combination of learned versatility and rugged physicality is designed to shut down opponents. Griffin, however, has never had to shut down someone at Silva’s level. The Brazilian seems to unveil a new facet of his game whenever he needs it most. That sort of offensive brilliance is what will tip this fight in Silva’s favor, as he will silence his critics with a vintage performance that leaves Griffin in a heap and fans reversing field yet again. It’s all in a day’s work for MMA’s premier athlete and Michael Jackson impersonator.