UFC 100 Preview: The Main Card

UFC Welterweight Championship
Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves

The Breakdown: After turning most of the UFC welterweight division into his own personal heavy bag, Alves will finally get his crack at the resident alpha male, reigning champion St. Pierre. A gifted kickboxer with an incredible offensive arsenal on the feet, Alves’ main concern should be St. Pierre’s wrestling and how exactly he’s going to keep himself from getting grapple-stomped by the Canadian’s dazzling ground game. While Alves’ takedown defense will be critical, his willingness to stay true to his style will be just as important.

If Alves plans on winning by stuffing takedowns and landing the occasional strike, he will be lucky to last five minutes, never mind five rounds. Forcing St. Pierre to fight conservatively by asserting his dominance on the feet early will make those takedowns less frequent, as the champion will have to think defense first and offense second. St. Pierre is a studied striker in his own right, however, and he can survive in Alves’ world; the opposite seems about as likely as the return of J.D. Salinger. In terms of pure ability, few exist in St. Pierre’s universe. That sort of offensive dynamism has allowed him to effortlessly zone in on his opponent’s weaknesses and exploit them so mercilessly. Alves is hardly a dead fish on the mat, but if he spends too much time there, St. Pierre will turn him into one.

The X Factor: Being a ginormous welterweight means making equally ginormous weight cuts, and while St. Pierre has it down to a science, Alves has struggled to make weight in the past. Now stripped of the one pound leeway he usually enjoys, can Alves make weight and, if he does, will it even be worth the effort if it wipes him out? Assuming all goes well, Alves is about as dangerous a fighter as St. Pierre will ever face, as he can go from one-shot assassin to precision dismantler with baffling ease. However, the slightest hiccup at the weigh-in should be enough to get his cheering section wondering if their post-fight celebration will turn into a valediction for Alves’ title hopes.

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The Bottom Line: Every second spent standing is just another second Alves has to turn St. Pierre’s brain cells inside out, but that will not matter as much as his ability to keep St. Pierre from going into Cael Sanderson mode. Typically, Alves has leaned on his leg kicks to control distance and wear down opponents, but whipping your legs at a bundle of fast-twitch muscles like St. Pierre is like sending him a personalized takedown request. Robbed of his most effective weapon, Alves will have to take some risks on the feet that will turn into more chances for St. Pierre to get him on the canvas. If working the guard against St. Pierre has failed the likes of B.J. Penn and Karo Parisyan, do not hold out any hope for Alves figuring out the Rubik’s cube of pain St. Pierre will drop in his lap.