Sloan: Tanner is definitely the more dangerous guy when it comes to the ground game. Not by much, but he is better. I won’t be surprised if Franklin winds up on his back at least once or twice in this battle, but if/when he does, he’ll be just fine. Tanner is proficient with the subs and his ground and pound has grown in droves ever since he was a member of Team Quest.
This is one of those fights where either man can win, but I think it’s the power and pure striking ability of Franklin that will prevail. Let’s not forget the times that Baroni staggered Tanner a few times in that rematch of theirs and if you can remember, one of those came very late in the fight when Baroni was falling all over himself from exhaustion. With that said, just imagine what Franklin would do to him, especially since “Ace” hits harder than Baroni. Like I said: Tanner is comfortable on his feet and will test Franklin, a move that will prove to be costly.
Is Tanner a better fighter at middleweight? It certainly appears that way. Is Franklin better at light heavyweight? Absolutely. Is Tanner the better fighter? I don’t think so. The rule of thumb is that the great little guy always beats the good big guy. But when the big guy is great and is fighting another great little guy, the formula heavily favors the great bigger guy. The math is too easy, even for someone coming from the Chicago Public School System.
And if you want to talk intangibles, then that aspect of the fight favors Franklin. Tanner has already gotten his ass handed to him from Franklin and I don’t care what you, Tanner or anybody says, that is stuck on his mind. He thinks about their first encounter virtually every day and when they climb into that Octagon, his TKO loss at the hands of his opponent will prominently be etched into his psyche.
With that, one of two circumstances usually always occur: 1) he’ll be too leery and/or nervous about losing in the same fashion and will be far too cautious to seize control of the fight. He’ll shy away from exchanges and hug his way until the bitter end. 2) The other circumstance is that he’ll be angry at himself for losing the first match and will be too adamant about redeeming himself. From there he will make too many mistakes and will fight more on emotion than anything. Making too many mistakes against someone like Franklin is a death sentence.
So is it conceivable that Tanner will win? Obviously. He’s not the champ at 185 for nothing. The only way I see Franklin losing to this guy, though, is if he is seriously cut and the fight is stopped. Dropping severe weight during training and then bulking back up for the next 24 hours after the weigh-in is brutal to the skin, causing it to lacerate much easier because it’s both worn thin and filled with water. But I seriously doubt Franklin has anything to worry about.
There’s really no need to further discuss this matter.
Gross: Experience, experience, experience. Tanner had two years to improve and get over the Franklin loss. Not only does he believe his fight versus Franklin it was stopped early, he’s now got the mental buoy that comes with winning a championship.
Like you said (thanks, by the way) Tanner has closed the gap on the feet. That was the most glaring difference between the two in their first fight. Also in Tanner’s favor is the real possibility that Franklin’s power edge has disappeared with the 20 pounds he shed to make the fight.
And Tanner isn’t smaller than Franklin. In fact, when Evan stepped on the scale Friday, he appeared to be the larger man.
There’s one major flaw in that little fighting equation of yours. If, as you said (thanks again), Tanner is the better middleweight, and this fight is at middleweight, wouldn’t that math lead you to believe Tanner’s the winner here?
I’ll concede to you, if this bout was at light heavyweight, Franklin’s the one with clear advantages. But is a natural light heavyweight better off fighting 20 pounds below his 91-octane level? I think not. Yes I’m harping on this because it’s the key. Franklin simply isn’t at his best at 185. Good? Sure. Great? No.
The toll of consecutive training camps (remember, Franklin fought on April 9 at 205 pounds) without a break is another factor here. Worrying about weight, getting ready for a top-level opponent, challenging for a UFC title, the opportunity to be a coach on TUF 2 that comes with a win … all these things lead me to believe that when Saturday night has come and gone, Franklin will not have earned his second career win over Tanner.
If it does in fact go down like this, I hope Franklin reconsiders his move to 185 and doesn't drop water again. He’d be a great addition to the light heavyweight division, which will see Randy Couture retire soon and is in dire need of new talent to join Chuck Liddell.
Tanner wins by TKO in the fourth round.
Mike, it’s been fun. Sorry I had to put you through the paces. Next time, hopefully Savage will be back to make it an even contest.