Shinya Aoki (18-3) vs. Eddie Alvarez (15-1)
Aoki
Striking : 1.5
Grappling : 5.0
Submissions : 4.5
Experience : 2.5
Total : 3.4
Alvarez
Striking : 4.5
Grappling : 4.0
Submissions : 2.0
Experience : 2.5
Total : 3.3
Five months after they were supposed to clash in the final of the Dream lightweight grand prix, Japanese judo prodigy Aoki and American wrestler and boxer Alvarez will fight to find out who’s the better man. The bout will also likely determine who can lay claim to being the top lightweight in the world outside of UFC champion B.J. Penn.
Known for his extreme flexibility and flamboyant in-ring attire, Aoki appeared to be en route to capturing the Dream title when Alvarez was unable to continue in the tournament because of a nasty cut below the eye. The former policeman was left with egg on his face, however, after he was victimized by substitute Joachim Hansen, an opponent he had already decisively beaten 19 months earlier.
Alvarez, a young Philadelphian with charisma to match his world-class skills, has emerged as perhaps the revelation of the year. Always a strong wrestler with heavy hands, the former Bodog Fight welterweight champion rose to the occasion and showed his best side in the Dream lightweight grand prix, even though injury prevented him from fighting in the final. His semi-final clash with Japanese wrestler Tatsuya Kawajiri remains a strong contender for “Fight of the Year.”
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Prediction: Alvarez has the antidote -- excellent wrestling and adequate submission defense -- to Aoki’s mat magic. He will use his wrestling to keep the fight standing and knock out Aoki late in the first round.