Once that happens, you’re essentially matching Diaz’s submission savvy against Stevenson’s top control and underrated ground-and-pound. While Stevenson is certainly an above average grappler, he’s a notch below the best and he especially suffers when he can’t use his brute strength to make up the difference. Bulling Diaz around won’t work by itself. Unless Stevenson can back up his takedowns with some real offense, he’ll be staring down the barrel of a third straight loss inside the Octagon.
The X Factor: The temptation is to think that this bout will be decided on the mat. That ignores Stevenson’s troubling habit of going off in search of kickboxing matches when he should be focused on scoring takedowns. Whether it’s bad game planning or a crisis of confidence, Stevenson should not be fancying himself a striker and he definitely shouldn’t take on Diaz with that mentality. An unorthodox but fluid striker, Diaz’s reach advantage alone should be enough to dissuade Stevenson from trading with him, but if Stevenson does, he’ll get his own wing in the Darwin hall of fame.
The Bottom Line: It looks like the lightweight division has left Stevenson behind. That notion will only be driven home by Diaz, who hands in a sterling showing at the expense of Satoru Kitaoka’s body-double. Expect it to start out evenly with Stevenson’s physicality giving Diaz trouble, but Stevenson doesn’t have the gas tank to keep that strategy going for three rounds and his grappling isn’t going to come anywhere near neutralizing the younger half of the flying Stockton brothers. Once Stevenson starts to slip, Diaz will quickly seal the deal.