Scott Smith vs. Cung Le (black trunks): Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
The hype train on Le was nearing warp speed after outclassing Smith for two rounds at Strikeforce “Evolution.” Three minutes and 25 seconds later, Le was a gassed-out heap on the canvas and Smith had just put the capper on another miracle in the cage.
Le’s collapse was owed mostly to poor conditioning, which was quickly blamed on his Hollywood career and perceived lack of focus on prizefighting. Whether or not he has adjusted his schedule and priorities to account for that failure is what the fight really hinges on. Especially since expecting any sort of technical or strategic improvements from Smith is like trying to breed a unicorn -- hopeless and more than a bit crazy.
Smith is simply content to be a slugger who takes punishment and tries to score spectacular knockouts. That style is a poor match for Le’s high-volume, accurate style, which emphasizes exotic techniques and constantly changing levels with strikes. This dynamic stays intact as long as Le has the cardio to keep Smith at leg’s length with kicks.
It’s when Le has to rely on his hands that he starts to look very human, as he lacks the boxing technique to back up his kicks. Smith is certainly no Eder Jofre, but he has power to spare and just enough skill to make it sing when given the opportunity. The inability to create those chances is what holds Smith back, and Le’s elusive footwork only exacerbates that problem.
Being kept outside the pocket virtually paralyzes Smith’s style, and Le already did it for 10 minutes once before. Even when Smith did get inside, he often ended up on his back thanks to Le’s takedowns, and while he was generally able to get back to his feet, it only restarted the cycle of him getting picked apart with kicks. Just like the first fight, the possibility of Le’s cardio letting him down and Smith’s indomitable will winning the day is a real one tempered by the now proven stylistic difficulties Smith faces.
I got a lot of flak for picking Smith in that first fight thanks to Le’s insufferable cult of fans. I expect much of the same now because Smith is going to knock Le clean out. For all the stylistic issues present for Smith, he won’t stop making Le work for a win and there isn’t any reason to believe the san shou convert is taking MMA more seriously than he has in the past. This is not the sport for moonlighters, and if Quinton Jackson wasn’t enough proof, Le will seal the deal.