Josh Thomson (left): Dave Mandel | Sherdog.com
Come fight time, Thomson and Cavalcante will bring arguably the greatest conglomeration of talent and injuries a cage has ever seen. If not for those injuries, we might be talking about two of the best lightweights in the sport today -- that’s how talented they are and how hamstrung their careers have been by injury.
As is, the fight is a fascinating style clash between the erudite striking and wrestling of Thomson and the rare combination of polished Brazilian jiu-jitsu and unvarnished power Cavalcante wields. A clue as to how this fight may play out lies in Cavalcante’s recent match with Katsunori Kikuno, which saw the Brazilian mini-tank run into considerable issues against the Japanese karateka’s more versatile striking style. In the past “JZ” could overcome such problems with his off-the-charts athleticism, but lately he hasn’t shown the speed to make his power sing.
This puts him in the unenviable position of either trading with a more fluid, mobile striker or hunting takedowns against one of the sport’s most underrated wrestlers. There is no reason to believe that Cavalcante couldn’t hit a power double leg or two on Thomson, but doing so on a consistent basis and actually holding him down is another matter entirely. The other problem awaiting the American Top Team disciple is that Thomson is difficult to stop and can keep the sort of pace that may tax the muscle-bound Brazilian come the bout’s late stages.
Barring some highlight-reel worthy string of offense, this fight will almost certainly head to a decision. A tie-breaking third round is the most likely scenario and it favors Thomson’s faultless conditioning as well as his wrestling. A few stuffed takedowns and some clean strikes would be all he needs to take a close decision, while Cavalcante will need to show some obvious dominance on the canvas to have any hope of doing the same.
Most of Thomson’s injuries have cost him nothing more than cage time; Cavalcante’s have left him a different fighter from the nigh unstoppable beast that once dominated the Japanese circuit. A vintage Cavalcante poses problems for the Thomson of today. Unfortunately, the Cavalcante of today will do no better than a competitive decision loss.