Tim Kennedy (top) file photo: Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
The fighting pride of South Africa and an Army super sniper meet in a critical middleweight tilt better suited to comic books than a cage. With the Strikeforce middleweight division looking increasingly chaotic thanks to champion Jake Shields’ ongoing contract negotiations with the UFC, a win for either Kennedy or Prangley could lead to serious title consideration.
For Kennedy to keep his undefeated run intact, he will need to find a way to force his hectic pace on the hulking Prangley -- a talented Greco-Roman wrestler who will be content to methodically top control his way to a decision. Though Kennedy has the more diverse offense, he will not be able to do much about Prangley’s takedowns. That means he needs to pressure Prangley as much as he can and test the South African’s suspect gas tank.
Kennedy’s nine-month layoff does him no favors, but he does have the grappling skills to give Prangley problems from the guard. Despite having an ironclad base, Prangley has never been much of a guard passer, and his middling offense from top control often forces him to play a defensive game as opponents search for submission chances. That overall lack of offensive firepower has been Prangley’s biggest downfall, and he does not seem likely to find some magic elixir to fix it after nearly a decade in the game.
Kennedy can create offense between takedowns with his striking and his grappling. That will at least keep things even on the mat, though judges tend not to smile on the guy being taken down. This will play a major role in who gets his hand raised. Unless Prangley gasses, a finish will likely remain beyond Kennedy’s grasp.
Putting together 15 minutes of stultifying top control has never been an issue for Prangley, but replicating the feat against a higher level of competition has given him trouble in the past. It will be far from easy, but Kennedy has the conditioning and offense to make things uncomfortable for Prangley. When Prangley cannot fight at his pace, he tends to wilt, and Kennedy will make him do so en route to a come-from-behind decision win.