Strikeforce ‘Henderson vs. Babalu’ Preview

Welterweights
Paul Daley (No. 10 WW) vs. Scott Smith

The Matchup: Smith is the Arturo Gatti of MMA. And with the kind of power that few fighters possess, Daley is looking for a big-time win over the sport’s most dramatic comeback artist.

With back-from-the-brink knockout wins over Pete Sell, Benji Radach and Cung Le, Smith is in a class of his own when it comes to Hail Mary victories. Thus, the drop to welterweight and the battle with “Semtex” is the perfect debut for him.

Smith has good takedowns and core strength in tieups, but he prefers to stand and bang, even when he catches shots and looks like someone staggering away from a car crash. Ironically, his comeback wins have created a rare aura that only few fighters possess, as opponents have to seriously think twice before pouncing on him when he looks hurt.

Daley has excellent strikes and likes to spring forward with them, often leading with a stout left hook. He will also use a series of running steps to try flying knees; his takedown defense is improved, as he dictated the range in spots in his submission loss to Jake Shields and proved he has decent submission awareness in giving up his back to Josh Koscheck in his UFC 113 decision defeat. Daley, a physically gifted fighter, is assimilating the ground game and its elements as fast he can, which is still a tall order when facing the elites of those various disciplines.

On the feet, he will probably want to get off first against Smith and use kicks to make him lower his guard. Smith likes to cover up and then fire back with big counters, paying the toll to stand in the pocket and then explode back after his opponent bangs away. Daley’s muay Thai skills could also come into play if Smith is getting outpointed in a distance duel. That said, Smith possesses effective muay Thai, as well, and at least trying one takedown would do a lot for opening up his options.

The wild card here is Smith’s weight cut. He turned professional as a smallish heavyweight, around 210 pounds, before he dropped to light heavyweight and, ultimately, middleweight. Today’s trend of dropping weight classes means one never really knows how a guy is going to look, especially his first time out. Whether it was Rich Franklin’s tougher-than expected debut at 185 against Jorge Rivera or Joe Riggs starving himself to make 170 in the UFC and elsewhere, fighters are definitely pushing the limits, with IVs readily used to rehydrate their terrifyingly dried-out physiques. Quite often, the first time is the hardest, and fighters seem to lose a lot of strength relative to their opponents; witness Diego Sanchez’s inability to make the drop to 155 and retain his strength.

Having been a longtime Scott Smith watcher, I thought he looked a little sluggish in his 180-pound catchweight bout against Nick Diaz. Cutting another 10 pounds is a challenge he says he will be able to meet with diet changes. Thankfully for him, this match will not test his grappling stamina in a long, grinding fight. This is a slugfest.

Daley will come out looking to make a splash in the Strikeforce welterweight division, and Smith will oblige. Look for big exchanges, especially if Smith is hurt early, because “Semtex” has the kind of panache to try and finish him. I think big trades will send both guys’ game plans flying out the window, with Smith getting rocked early and coming back with power punches to put Daley on the mat. Smith’s cut to 170 is a true X-factor here, but this matchup will probably not press the issue of how he will fit into the new weight class, simply because this fight will not last long enough.

The Pick: I like Smith by knockout in two rounds against a man who has never been knocked out. Expect a late-entry candidate for “Fight of the Year.”