Lightweight
Gregor Gillespie (10-0) vs. Jordan Rinaldi (13-5)ODDS: Gillespie (-600), Rinaldi (+450)
ANALYSIS:: Rinaldi is probably excited to get to fight in the UFC in his hometown. I suspect he is not especially excited to face Gillespie.
Gillespie, 31, is a top-flight prospect. A four-time All-American wrestler and NCAA champion at Edinboro University, he has made an effortless transition to MMA while racking up a 10-0 record. He is a natural top-position grappler and guard passer, and from the moment he made his pro debut four years ago, he had a natural knack for pounding out opponents or forcing them to give up mercy-kill submissions. However, in his last two outings against Andrew Holbrook and Jason Gonzalez, Gillespie has shown significant improvement in his boxing and overall striking skills, including the development of a variety of punches with his lead left hand. Gillespie is still a work in progress, but he is already well-rounded.
Rinaldi is a competent striker, but he is at his finest on the floor. He will launch some hard leg kicks followed by a volley of punches to close the distance and then operate from the clinch, seeking takedowns. Safe to say, he is not going to have much currency in the wrestling department against Gillespie. However, the Team ROC product is an outstanding scrambler and transitional grappler, with exceptional back-taking ability. These are the skills that Rinaldi is going to have to use if he is going to beat Gillespie.
Unfortunately for him, Gillespie is a smart submission grappler already, and his overwhelming pressure on the floor will likely stifle any chance of Rinaldi getting his bottom game going. Gillespie is simply superior to Rinaldi in every phase and distance, and short of that Hail Mary submission, Gillespie should batter Rinaldi and stop him in the mid-to-late portion of the fight.
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