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Lightweights

Khabib Nurmagomedov (22-0) vs. Darrell Horcher (12-1)

THE MATCHUP: The day has finally come. At just 27 years old, Nurmagomedov is quite possibly the most promising fighter in MMA. His potential is boundless -- if only he could stop getting injured. Since Nurmagomedov dominated Rafael dos Anjos in April 2014, dos Anjos has gone on to run roughshod over the rest of the lightweight elite, knocking out former champ Benson Henderson, schooling Nate Diaz, dominating then-champion Anthony Pettis to take the belt and then defending the strap in a sensational one-minute victory over perennial contender Donald Cerrone. Meanwhile, Nurmagomedov has been sitting on the sidelines, nursing a litany of injuries and watching the lightweight landscape transform before his eyes, powerless to affect it.

As a grappler, Nurmagomedov’s numerous knee injuries could have a profound effect on his ability to perform. The upside is that “The Eagle” has never overly relied on low shots, which require strong and flexible knees to execute. However, his footwork could suffer, and footwork may in fact be Nurmagomedov’s greatest strength. Though he has never been known to float smoothly around the Octagon, Nurmagomedov has always demonstrated excellent cage control. He is always aware of his position in the cage and constantly moves his feet to maintain an advantageous position -- usually in the center, with his opponent’s back to the fence.

Now that surging contender Tony Ferguson has pulled out, Nurmagomedov will not receive the stiff test he expected. That could be for the best, as two years have passed since the Dagestani last stepped into the cage. If anyone could use a tune-up, it is him. With that being said, late replacement Darrell Horcher is no lame duck.

Horcher is a capable and powerful boxer-puncher. He throws concise combinations and counters quite well in the pocket, where his punches are extremely accurate. The problem is that Horcher tends to square up while looking for these counterpunches, and Nurmagomedov is likely to have a field day with that compromised position. Still, the Dagestani will have to be mindful of Horcher’s power.

THE ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-1100), Horcher (+700)

THE PICK: This is a great fight -- it will be contested at a 160-pound catchweight -- for Nurmagomedov after such a long layoff. The Dagestani grappler will have a chance to play his usual game, but Horcher will be just dangerous enough to test his reflexes. Under different circumstances, Horcher might even be called a live dog, but with so little time to prepare, there is little chance that he will have made the necessary adjustments to cope with Nurmagomedov’s pressure. Nurmagomedov wins by third-round TKO.

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