Preview: UFC on Fox 13

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HEAVYWEIGHTS

Alistair Overeem (37-14, 2-3 UFC) vs. Stefan Struve (25-6, 9-4 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Two Dutch heavyweights meet in a matchup that promises fireworks. Overeem entered the UFC with an imposing physique, a long winning streak and the Strikeforce heavyweight title, and now he desperately needs a win just to stay in the organization. Struve likely has a longer leash, but given that he was pulled from his last fight moments before it was due to take place and the heart condition that kept him out of action for more than a year, he also badly needs a win to stay relevant.

The decline of Overeem has everything to do with his inability to take a punch. Never a particularly skilled defensive fighter, his advancing age and accumulated wear and tear have heightened his historic “chinniness” to the point that he cannot reliably absorb damage at this point in his career. His actual skills, however, are just fine, and he retains his quickness and shocking power.

The best facet of Overeem’s game has always been his work in the clinch. He owns an arsenal of body-lock throws and trips, stifling control and the hardest, most mechanically perfect knees in MMA. From top position, he maintains an unshakeable base, vicious ground strikes and smooth passes, while his slick guillotine in transition is a constant threat if his opponents try to scramble back to their feet. Perhaps surprisingly for a K-1 World Grand Prix winner, Overeem’s range striking is the biggest hole in his game. While he throws with power, keeps a quick pace and mixes up his strike selection and locations, he is quite hittable and simply cannot take a flush shot anymore.

Struve is the tallest fighter in the UFC at an even 7-foot but does not effectively make use of his height to keep his opponents at range. He does throw a jab and front kick at long distance but does not utilize them particularly effectively; on the feet, he does his best work in punching exchanges and in the clinch. Although he is seriously hittable and not exactly what one would call slick in the pocket, he does have surprising power and is more durable than his record of knockout losses might suggest. Struve throws good knees at infighting distance and owns a few trips, but he has no defensive wrestling game and in general his takedowns are subpar. From his back, however, Struve is lethal: He has surprisingly strong hips, a full arsenal of sweeps, good guard retention and a variety of setups for his favorite triangles and armbars.

THE PICK: Given Overeem’s steady decline and Struve’s serious health problems, it is hard to predict exactly what will happen here. On sheer skill and physical capacities, however, Overeem should have the edge. There is no indication Struve will be able to keep him at distance, and Overeem should be able put his devastating clinch game to good use at close range. Overeem by knockout in the first round is the pick.

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