Lightweights
Scott Holtzman (14-5, 7-5 UFC) vs. Clay Guida (37-22, 17-16 UFC)Despite being days away from his 41st birthday, Guida has held up surprisingly well. It has now been over a decade since what most would consider his peak, when “The Carpenter” managed to set himself apart as a high-paced wrestler who was seemingly impossible to knock out. While Guida has obviously slowed down over the years, those core strengths have mostly held up, with some striking improvements also helping to slow the decline. Guida’s last two performances mostly tell the story. He somehow survived a hellacious beating in the early going against Leonardo Santos before staging a successful comeback, but his submission defense remained as open as ever when he was caught in a Claudio Puelles kneebar in April. Provided these last few months have not seen Guida completely fall off of the cliff, he will still be a viable challenge for Holtzman, who returns from a 20-month layoff. A late comer to mixed martial arts after a minor league hockey career, Holtzman is not that much younger than Guida at 39 years of age. Given the late start, it is unsurprising that Holtzman struggled in terms of natural instincts and technical depth against better competition, though he has been enough of an athletic standout to find some consistent success. The hope was that a steady decision victory over Jim Miller early in 2020 would be a launchpad to a late-career run towards contention, but that quickly came to an end with knockout losses to Beneil Dariush and Mateusz Gamrot. Those setbacks have aged well, but with Holtzman’s age, it does leave his career somewhat aimless as he returns from this long layoff. There are some clear potential pitfalls for Holtzman: His wrestling defense has been spotty in the past, and he is also at that point where any long layoff could be the one that saps some necessary athleticism. However, without Guida having much in the way of finishing ability, the bet is that Holtzman can keep things even enough to find the best offensive moments over the course of this fight and eke out a win. The pick is Holtzman via decision.
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