Preview: UFC on ESPN 33 ‘Blaydes vs. Daukaus’

Welterweights

NR | Matt Brown (23-18, 16-12 UFC) vs. NR | Bryan Barberena (16-8, 7-6 UFC)

ODDS: Brown (-110), Barberena (-110)

This is a long-overdue homecoming for Brown. One of the sport’s most beloved purveyors of violence, “The Immortal” was the platonic ideal of a middle-of-the-road action fighter for a few years until things finally clicked. A 2012 win over Chris Cope kicked off a seven-fight winning streak that led Brown to title contention, capped off by a memorable main event win over Erick Silva in Cincinnati. The hot streak did not last, as a loss to Robbie Lawler left Brown one win short of a title shot and gave way to a disappointing slide. However, Brown eventually turned things around with a horrifically brutal knockout of Diego Sanchez in 2017, after which he called it a career. It felt about right—it was as good a note as any to go out on, and the vibes around Brown’s career were still good—but with this being mixed martial arts, Brown was back training for a comeback in a matter of months. A torn ACL delayed Brown’s return until late 2019, and in the four fights since, he has looked about as good as can be expected. Brown can still bring the pain, as he did against Ben Saunders and Dhiego Lima, but age has sapped him of a lot of his athleticism and most of his cardio past about a round. With this fight taking place in his hometown of Columbus, it would not be a shock if this was Brown’s last fight, even if there has been no discussion of such. At any rate, he needs to get by a fellow action hero. Barberena had a breakout 2016 as a bit of a prospect-killer, derailing the hype trains of Sage Northcutt and Warlley Alves, and “Bam Bam” then continued to go forward as one of the most reliably exciting fighters on the roster. Of course, that was often to his own detriment. Barberena obviously put in time for some technical improvements, but his best performances mostly came on the back of his ability to wade through damage and keep pouring on offense. His war with Vicente Luque was one of the best fights of 2019, with Luque only putting Barberena away in the closing moments of the fight. Still, that bout seems to have been the epitome of a double-edged sword. It was an opportunity for Barberena to get his flowers as a complete warrior more so than he had to date, but it also seems to have been the turning point as far as his body breaking down. From a technical skill standpoint, Barberena is as sharp as ever, but major back surgery later in 2019 and then a life-threatening illness in 2020 seemingly sapped him of all the extra grit and athleticism that allowed him to win fights on the margins. Even though he has shown some gutsiness in winning two of his last three bouts, Barberena is obviously a much slower fighter after being put through the ringer; and his July loss to Jason Witt was the type of grind that Barberena had no problem winning in the past. Barberena still could gut this out—for as bad as he has looked at times, he still has not been knocked out recently, and Brown is purely a one-round fighter—but it does feel like he is at the point where he can no longer survive one of the Ohio native’s hot starts. The pick is Brown via first-round knockout.

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