Preview: UFC on ESPN 32 Prelims

Lightweights

NR | T.J. Brown (15-8, 1-2 UFC) vs. NR | Charles Rosa (14-6, 5-6 UFC)

ODDS: Brown (-280), Rosa (+225)

It was a mild surprise when Brown earned a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2019, but “Downtown” figured to be an exciting fighter if nothing else. Thus far, Brown has lived up to that billing with consistent gritty efforts. Brown has proven to be a well-rounded offensive threat who can keep pressing through damage, but he tends to give up any gains through his lack of defense, in part because he has a relatively straightforward approach. Brown was a bit lucky to squeak out a decision win in his last fight—a May bout against Kai Kamaka III—but it does give him the first momentum of his UFC career heading into this assignment. Initially slated for a featherweight bout against Gabriel Benitez, Brown will instead face a fellow natural 145er at lightweight, owing to Rosa taking this fight on just days’ notice. Rosa is a fascinating fighter, favoring an evasive and kick-heavy striking style as a means to set up his grappling, whether it is through pursuing a takedown as a change-up or tangling up with his opponents as they attempt to close the distance. Given that “Boston Strong” is only an effective finisher on the mat, Rosa’s decision wins have come via narrow margins, though it is still impressive that he has done well enough to alternate wins and losses throughout his entire UFC career. Rosa does figure to be the better grappler in a fight where both men are likely to wrestle, and that should be enough to give him the nod here. While Brown is the more potent shot-for-shot striker, this does seem like a clear case where his lack of defense figures to lose him a war of attrition, particularly with Rosa’s historical durability. Rosa’s willingness to work from his back and give up rounds is always a concern, along with his cardio in this late-notice spot, but this seems like a winnable fight. The pick is Rosa via decision.

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