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ODDS: Santos (-185), Guida (+160)
Days short of his 40th birthday, Guida continues to do Guida things. “The Carpenter” never quite got over the hump to a title shot, but Guida made a name for himself as one of the most reliably exciting fighters in the sport with bouts against the likes of Roger Huerta and Diego Sanchez, among others. However, those fights are now over a decade in the past, and for a fighter whose game has depended so much on pace and durability, it has been a bit of a shock to see Guida’s career have such a long tail. There are times when Guida is still outclassed by a younger prospect or just dives directly into a guillotine choke, but he is otherwise a surprisingly tough out, with a win over Michael Johnson and razor-thin loss to Mark O. Madsen in 2021. He is somehow the younger man here against Brazil’s Santos, who has had a strange UFC journey throughout the last eight-plus years.
Sign up for ESPN+ right here, and you can then stream the UFC, PFL, Dana White’s Contender Series and “The Ultimate Fighter” live on your smart TV, computer, phone, tablet or streaming device via the ESPN app.
Santos was already a seasoned vet well into his 30s when he won the second season of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil” in 2013, and he showed enough skill inside the Octagon to remain undefeated for almost eight years, with his streak including wins over the likes of Kevin Lee and Anthony Rocco Martin. The rub? Between 2013 and 2021, Santos was limited to all of seven appearances. Because of inactivity and injuries, Santos’ career never gained much momentum, and the UFC was content to keep slotting him in the middle of the card upon each return. Now 41 years old, Santos has started to look his age in his last few fights. A 2020 win over Roman Bogatov was rougher than it would have been at Santos’ peak, and a March 20 outing saw him suffer his first UFC loss after a game effort against Grant Dawson. There are still a lot of tools that could give Guida trouble—the American’s tendency to dive into submissions remains a huge concern—but the bet is that he can survive Santos’ counters and win rounds based on pace and wrestling yet again. The pick is Guida via decision.
Continue Reading » Crute vs. Hill
Lightweights
NR | Leonardo Santos (18-4-1, 7-1-1 UFC) vs. NR | Clay Guida (36-21, 16-15 UFC)Advertisement
Days short of his 40th birthday, Guida continues to do Guida things. “The Carpenter” never quite got over the hump to a title shot, but Guida made a name for himself as one of the most reliably exciting fighters in the sport with bouts against the likes of Roger Huerta and Diego Sanchez, among others. However, those fights are now over a decade in the past, and for a fighter whose game has depended so much on pace and durability, it has been a bit of a shock to see Guida’s career have such a long tail. There are times when Guida is still outclassed by a younger prospect or just dives directly into a guillotine choke, but he is otherwise a surprisingly tough out, with a win over Michael Johnson and razor-thin loss to Mark O. Madsen in 2021. He is somehow the younger man here against Brazil’s Santos, who has had a strange UFC journey throughout the last eight-plus years.
Sign up for ESPN+ right here, and you can then stream the UFC, PFL, Dana White’s Contender Series and “The Ultimate Fighter” live on your smart TV, computer, phone, tablet or streaming device via the ESPN app.
Santos was already a seasoned vet well into his 30s when he won the second season of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil” in 2013, and he showed enough skill inside the Octagon to remain undefeated for almost eight years, with his streak including wins over the likes of Kevin Lee and Anthony Rocco Martin. The rub? Between 2013 and 2021, Santos was limited to all of seven appearances. Because of inactivity and injuries, Santos’ career never gained much momentum, and the UFC was content to keep slotting him in the middle of the card upon each return. Now 41 years old, Santos has started to look his age in his last few fights. A 2020 win over Roman Bogatov was rougher than it would have been at Santos’ peak, and a March 20 outing saw him suffer his first UFC loss after a game effort against Grant Dawson. There are still a lot of tools that could give Guida trouble—the American’s tendency to dive into submissions remains a huge concern—but the bet is that he can survive Santos’ counters and win rounds based on pace and wrestling yet again. The pick is Guida via decision.
Continue Reading » Crute vs. Hill
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