Preview: UFC on ESPN 1 ‘Ngannou vs. Velasquez’

Women’s Strawweights

Cortney Casey-Sanchez (8-6) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (7-1)

ODDS: Calvillo (-260), Casey-Sanchez (+220)

Calvillo is an odd prospect. She has clearly defined strengths and weaknesses, and it is unclear if that is going to improve. Even though she is less than three years into her pro career, she is already 31 years old. At any rate, Calvillo burst onto the UFC scene in 2017, flashing some absolutely lethal grappling skills. Yes, her striking is still largely ineffective, but her submission ability alone has been enough to win four of her five UFC fights; and even in that loss, Calvillo’s grappling held up well against a strong wrestler in Carla Esparza. It is just a case of Calvillo falling a little bit too in love with her standup. Thanks to failing a marijuana test after the Esparza fight, it took Calvillo a little while to rebound, but once she came back, she reminded everyone why she is a top prospect, tapping out Poliana Botelho in impressive fashion with little trouble. Now it is back to getting the Calvillo hype train rolling again, and Casey-Sanchez is her next potential victim.

Casey-Sanchez has had an inconsistent UFC run. It feels like she has done a lot better than her 4-5 record with the promotion would suggest, but she is also someone who does not fight up to her potential, so it all evens out. Casey-Sanchez is a tall, impressive athlete with some solid grappling skills, but it all adds up to less than the sum of its parts. Her striking game is a bit of a mess, as she looks to counter before throwing the same few wild combinations, so her fights eventually become a puzzle that better opponents can figure out, neutralizing her skills and cruising to a decision. With that said, Casey-Sanchez’s opportunism and physical tools mean she is usually in the fight, as she is riding a streak of three straight split decisions. In general, the chance that Casey-Sanchez’s game fully clicks seems low, even if there are worse fates than settling in as a fun gatekeeper; and frankly, Calvillo is exactly the right fight for a fun gatekeeper.

For as much of a mess as Casey-Sanchez’s striking game can be, that should not matter here. Calvillo’s own striking game consists of a lot of movement and little else, as she remains defensively open while pot-shotting with punches that do not really seem to hurt. Calvillo does seem like the type of fighter who can wrongly convince herself that she is winning a kickboxing match, but at some point in this 15-minute bout, she should look to wrestle. That should win her the fight. Casey-Sanchez’s takedown defense remains poor, and she seems like just the type of opponent to be overconfident and scramble with Calvillo when she should not. The pick is Calvillo via second-round submission.

Next Fight » Caceres vs. Gracie