Lightweights
Jake Matthews (9-1) vs Johnny Case (22-4)Matthews’ entire game is fairly shallow, which is not to say it is not effective. Matthews’ striking is well-balanced, his wrestling is well-timed and his jiu-jitsu is positionally solid. One wrinkle that Matthews was able to show off in the Akbarh Arreola fight was his ground striking. Matthews has excellent striking mechanics from the guard, and his approach is reminiscent of Tito Ortiz or Urijah Faber.
Case’s game is built on the same kind of staples that Matthews prefers, but his execution is much smoother and there is much more depth to the way he employs his various techniques. He works behind a pawing jab but does most of his damage with the right side of his body. Case effortlessly flows between straight rights, overhands and uppercuts, mixing in low and body kicks when his opponent adapts. Unlike Matthews, Case never seems to run out of ideas or become desperate with his striking -- one of the defining traits of a veteran mixed martial artist.
Matthews and Case are both solid wrestlers, but Matthews’ combination of inexperience and explosive athleticism leads him to power his way through prolonged grappling exchanges; Case’s wrestling is all finesse. He has an excellent knee tap which he hides within the movements of his striking, like Dominick Cruz and Frankie Edgar. He also has excellent control after catching the kicks of his opponent, which also usually leads to a takedown. On the ground, Case is simply more dynamic and creative than Matthews, whose jiu-jitsu is old school in style.
THE ODDS: Case (-115), Matthews (-105)
THE PICK: Arreola is the type of fighter Matthews should be fighting right now -- tough, well-established veterans with exploitable holes. Opponents like that provide an opportunity for a prospect to grow, either in a win or a loss. Case is just not that kind of fighter. He is young and athletic in his own right but far more experienced and fighting out of an excellent camp, to boot. The pick is Case by submission in the second round.
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