Welterweights
Peter Sobotta (16-5-1) vs. Ben Saunders (21-7-2)Now spending time at Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand, Sobotta has displayed marked improvements in his striking. He throws accurate kicks from range, but it is his fencer-like southpaw jab that really shines, and with more confidence in his hands, Sobotta is capable of putting a solid straight left behind it. As a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, however, Sobotta’s improved takedown game is of paramount importance. Dalby had only been taken down once in the UFC prior to his fight with Sobotta, but the German put him on his back four times, once with a short left hook and three times with well-timed takedowns. More importantly, Dalby was stuck on his back for minutes at a time whenever he was grounded, as Sobotta repeatedly sliced through his guard and kept heavy pressure on him from top position. Ten of Sobotta’s 16 wins have come via tapout.
Having returned to the UFC for the third time, veteran scrapper Saunders boasts a credible 8-4 record with the promotion. In terms of experience and venomous offense, he could be the biggest test of Sobotta’s second UFC run. On the feet, Saunders is almost purely a muay Thai stylist. His signature weapon is his powerful left kick, which he will throw in multiples of twos and threes, attacking the legs, body and head with equal prejudice. Mid-range boxing has never been his area of expertise, and he usually prefers to tie up his opponent in a clinch to work knees, potent weapons given his towering 6-foot-3 frame. In recent fights, however, Saunders has demonstrated some improved boxing, moving his head and throwing more combinations as he looks to either clinch or retreat.
On the ground, this matchup should prove quite interesting. Sobotta has never been submitted -- he did tap to punches way back in 2006 -- and he should be able to control Saunders on the ground. Saunders likes to play guard, however, and his long legs and preference for the high guard allow him to attack submissions where other fighters would struggle. To this day, he is the only fighter to have finished a fight via omoplata in the UFC, and he has seven other submissions to his name.
THE ODDS: Saunders (-120), Sobotta (+100)
THE PICK: Sobotta will likely spend a little time fighting from range, especially in the early portion of this bout, and that could prove dangerous. Saunders is more than capable of landing kicks like the one with which Noke sent Sobotta to the floor, and his height and reach give him an advantage at distance. While Sobotta is no Demian Maia, his wrestling has come along by leaps and bounds. Overall, Saunders has defended 72 percent of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC, but he has been taken down at least once by all but one of his last six UFC opponents. Provided Sobotta can complete a few takedowns, his airtight top control and long grappling experience will give him the edge on the ground and in the fight. The pick is Sobotta by unanimous decision.
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