Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Cyborg vs. Lansberg’

Heavyweights

Roy Nelson (21-13) vs. Antonio Silva (19-9-1)

THE MATCHUP: Heavyweight is a brutal place. Between them, Nelson and Silva have lost 13 of their last 19 fights. Though he will pay the price in long-term health, Nelson’s losses are more promising than Silva’s: He was knocked out only once, by Mark Hunt, whereas “Bigfoot” has been KO’d seven times since 2010.

Few things matter more than durability at heavyweight, and that is Nelson’s biggest advantage here. Nelson is famously tough, having absorbed an incredible 836 significant strikes in his UFC career. That is an average of 49 significant strikes per fight, or 4.62 per minute; and despite fighting men like Hunt, Junior dos Santos, Daniel Cormier and Alistair Overeem, the fact that Nelson has only been KO’d once in all that time is something of a minor miracle. The guy can take a shot. He can deliver one, too, and that spells trouble for “Bigfoot.” All but one of Nelson’s eight UFC wins resulted in a knockout.

Were it not for his chin, Silva would have a good chance of troubling Nelson. That is to say, he still does have a chance, but it is considerably smaller thanks to his big, fragile chin. Silva is slow, but he is a fairly technical striker by heavyweight standards, with a decent kicking game and some nice combinations. He times his strikes well and knows how to measure his distance to set up the big right hand. His killer instinct is excellent; rarely has a fighter been hurt by Silva without subsequently being finished.

Nelson and Silva are high-level submission grapplers, and both have struggled to make this skill set count in recent years. Again, this aspect of the fight looks better for Nelson than it does for “Bigfoot.” Nelson failed to get anything going on the ground, but he successfully took down Derrick Lewis seven times in his most recent fight, making a very good case for the decision in the process. Prior to that, he floored Josh Barnett four times and even showed off some much improved stamina in the process. Silva is more dangerous than Nelson on the ground, both with strikes and submissions, but he has not scored a successful takedown since his name-making win over Fedor Emelianenko in 2011.

THE ODDS: Nelson (-445), Silva (+350)

THE PICK: I would love to have seen this fight five years ago. There was a time when Silva was known for his imposing frame and well-rounded skills rather than his fragility. Much of the strength and skill are still there, but only in flashes, and the shattered chin makes it incredibly difficult for Silva to get anything going in most fights. Nelson no longer belongs anywhere near the top of the division, but he remains tough and powerful. “Bigfoot” is nowhere near as elusive as his namesake, and “Big Country” is due another knockout win. The pick is Nelson by first-round KO.

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