Dustin Poirier will return home to his native Louisiana. | Photo: Sherdog.com
LIGHTWEIGHTS
Dustin Poirier (17-4, 9-3 UFC) vs. Yancy Medeiros (11-2, 2-2 UFC)Poirier has evolved into a fantastic puncher. He flicks a consistent 1-2 from his southpaw stance, baits the counter as he steps back to the fringes of the pocket and then returns with combinations that he likes to punctuate with a powerful right hook or slashing low kick. He does get a bit wild, however, and defense has been a consistent problem throughout his career. Poirier has a bad habit of leaving his head on the centerline and relying too heavily on a tight guard, and skilled opponents have consistently exploited this. The rest of the Louisianan’s game ranges between solid and excellent. He has strong takedown defense, and while he can hit the occasional throw in the clinch or double-leg at range, he does not integrate them terribly well with his striking repertoire. He is venomous in grappling transitions, with a slick arsenal of chokes and back takes.
Medeiros has flown under the radar in the stacked lightweight division, but he is a legitimate talent. The Hawaiian has freakish length, great quickness, serious power in his hands and excellent offensive output. He mixes in his rangy, snapping 1-2 with a consistent spinning back kick and a steady diet of front and round kicks at distance. Medeiros does his best work in the pocket, however, particularly with his counter left hook, and he is perfectly comfortable in extended exchanges. Offensive wrestling is not Medeiros’ wheelhouse -- in fact, he has yet to complete a takedown in his UFC career -- but he is a strong defensive wrestler and is perfectly comfortable grinding away in the clinch with short punches, elbows and knees. On the mat, Medeiros is lethal in transitions and has a particularly dangerous guillotine; he even owns a win via bulldog choke.
THE PICK: Poirier will be the favorite, and rightfully so, given his body of work and elite experience, but do not sleep on the Hawaiian: Poirier is hittable and Medeiros has big power and a substantial size advantage; and he can match the Louisiana native in terms of pace and output. Medeiros has a bad habit of eating low kicks, however, and I think it slightly more likely that Poirier will brutalize his legs, wear him down and take a close fight. The pick is Poirier by decision.
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