Charles Johnson (16-6) vs. Su Mudaerji (16-6)
Odds: Johnson (-225), Mudaerji (+185)
Is Charles Johnson ready to finally make a run to contention? Johnson had an undeniable level of regional success prior to his UFC debut on top of being an obvious physical talent, but it was unclear exactly how he'd fare after a jump up to the big leagues. A tall flyweight with athletic pop and excellent cardio, "InnerG" has always tended to coast on those physical gifts; even as a regional champion, Johnson would take multiple rounds to feel out his opponents and seemingly fight a losing fight up until the point that he suddenly turned things around and scored a late finish. After making it to the UFC, Johnson proved himself to be a tough out - he still has yet to lose via anything but decision - but it did seem like those issues would permanently come back to bite him, particularly after three straight losses in 2023 that saw Johnson unable to turn things up and score a victory. But 2024 has seen a huge turnaround for Johnson, as while he's still a slow starter, he's now turning the corner earlier and earlier on top of rediscovering some of his finishing ability; he scored decision wins over Azat Maksum and Jake Hadley over the back half of those fights, and a fun fight against top prospect Joshua Van saw him close the show with a brutal third-round knockout. Johnson seems poised to break into the UFC's flyweight rankings and possibly accomplish even more, and Mudaerji marks the next step up in competition. The UFC's first Tibetan fighter, Mudaerji seemed like a decent enough bantamweight prospect but truly popped after he cut down to 125 pounds, where he typically has a massive size advantage without sacrificing any of his speed. That's allowed "The Tibetan Eagle" to hit opponents hard from some unorthodox angles, but his focus on aggression has been a double-edged sword, as he's come out on the losing end against rugged veterans Matt Schnell and Tim Elliott. Mudaerji's defensive wrestling particularly looked like a liability against Elliott, so that's a clear path to victory for Johnson in what generally seems like a rough matchup for the Tibetan fighter; Mudaerji won't even have his typical size advantage against the similarly built Johnson. Johnson's a hard fighter to trust, since there's always the chance he goes back to his default state of being relatively inactive, but as long as he turns things up at some point, he should find some success; the pick is Johnson via third-round submission.
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Hernandez vs. Pereira
Font vs. Phillips
Johnson vs. Sumudaerji
Smotherman vs. Hadley
Elkins vs. Pineda
The Prelims