Preview: UFC Fight Night 194 ‘Dern vs. Rodriguez’

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Flyweights

#11 FLW | Matheus Nicolau (16-2-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. #9 FLW | Tim Elliott (17-11-1, 6-9 UFC)

ODDS: Nicolau (-190), Elliott (+165)

The UFC is slowly rebuilding its men’s flyweight division, and it is appropriate that Nicolau is part of that charge. Why? Because Nicolau’s 2018 release was one of the first signs that the UFC was looking to unwind the division. “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil” Season 4 winner had impressed in his first three UFC bouts before suffering a head kick knockout loss to Dustin Ortiz. Then Henry Cejudo apparently saved the division by defending his title against T.J. Dillashaw, and Nicolau—riding two regional victories at the time—was at some point quietly re-signed ahead of a return bout against Manel Kape in March. It resulted in a somewhat-controversial Nicolau decision victory. Nicolau is an interesting talent, particularly at flyweight, as he is well-rounded but adopts a counter-heavy style. It has proven effective thus far, but such approaches always have a thin margin at a certain level of competition—a reality exacerbated by Nicolau merely being a solid athlete in the much faster waters at 125 pounds. Nicolau narrowly escaped the Kape bout with a win, and he gets another tough test here.

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Elliott is another two-time UFC signee, as he slid out of the promotion in 2015 after some tough matchmaking before winning an all-flyweight season of “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2016. That earned Elliott a shot at then-champion Demetrious Johnson, and he did well to take a round from the all-time great. Then Elliott spent the last few years doing Elliott things, mixing an awkward movement-heavy striking style with an aggressive scramble game. Up until a little over a year ago, it appeared Elliott had hit the point of diminishing returns, as the awkward inefficiency of his style seemed to be causing him more exhaustion than success. However, a camp change and move back to Missouri seems to have paid off handsomely. While Elliott’s approach is not particularly different, he has been a three-round fighter in his last two bouts. That makes this an even harder fight to call, as Nicolau has traditionally struggled more against pressure, which Elliott figures to deliver in spades. Elliott could just swamp Nicolau, but the Brazilian is a solid-enough grappler to at least make the ground exchanges a wash. Elliott’s awkward style also leaves defensive holes, so the bet is that Nicolau can find enough openings to land some solid shots that can win him rounds on the scorecards. This might be the most difficult pick to make on a well-matched card, but the call is for Nicolau to win via decision.

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