Preview: UFC Fight Night 183 Prelims

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Catchweight

NR | Antonio Arroyo (9-3, 0-1 UFC) vs. NR | Deron Winn (6-2, 1-2 UFC)

ODDS: Arroyo (-155), Winn (+135)

If not for the fact that Arroyo is stepping on late notice, this feels like a fight where the UFC matchmakers decided to amuse themselves, given the physical disparities between these two fighters. Winn is a Daniel Cormier protégé. Beyond the common wrestling background, that also applies to Winn’s frame, as the Missourian has a height comparable to most bantamweights while being twice as wide. At first, that did not seem to matter much. Even with most of his pre-UFC career taking place up at light heavyweight, Winn racked up a solid record that included a win over UFC veteran Tom Lawlor; and Winn looked good in his UFC debut against Eric Spicely, adopting a decidedly un-Cormier approach in a fast-paced striking battle that saw him come out the victor. However, things have not been nearly as sanguine since. Faced with two stronger grapplers in Darren Stewart and Gerald Meerschaert, Winn eventually tired himself out after some early success, at which point his frame became a clear liability on the feet the rest of the way. Ideally, Winn would be able to drop down another division or two where he has more size parity, but even making it to middleweight appears to be a struggle. Instead, he will try to make hay against Arroyo. In clear contrast to Winn, the most immediately apparent trait for Arroyo is that he is gigantic for the middleweight division, and he puts that frame to good use. At his best, he keeps opponents at range on the strength of a powerful kicking game. The Brazilian did not face the best competition on his way to the UFC, so there is some issue when opponents manage to bite down and charge through Arroyo’s first layer of offense. Against a relentless grappler in Andre Muniz, Arroyo did a solid job of fighting back to try and dissuade his countryman and get things back at range, but he also quickly exhausted himself scrapping at such a rapid pace. There is the possibility that Winn can establish a tone early with his wrestling and outwork Arroyo for a win. However, Winn looks like a much less aggressive and confident fighter after his recent losses. Add in that Arroyo is not likely to feel threatened, given his considerable size advantage, and this feels like a fight where he will dictate the terms and succeed. The pick is Arroyo via second-round knockout.

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