Preview: UFC Fight Night 173 ‘Brunson vs. Shahbazyan’ Main Card

DROPPED! @VicenteLuqueMMA putting Price down in the third! #UFC249 pic.twitter.com/lTPVOJjIEW

— UFC (@ufc) May 10, 2020

Welterweights

Vicente Luque (18-7-1) vs. Randy Brown (12-3)

ODDS: Luque (-180), Brown (+158)

Has Brown finally turned the corner? Sage Northcutt was the first signing off of the recent spate of Dana White-branded reality series, but Brown, the second signing, set much more of a tone for what the UFC boss likes in a prospect: athleticism, finishing ability and being nowhere near ready to make it as a contender. Brown, like many after him, was sent off to sink or swim in short order, which resulted in a frustratingly inconsistent run over the last four and a half years. Brown showed some stark positives, mainly revolving around his giant frame and offensive potency, but since he was essentially learning on the job, every positive on offense was seemingly negated by a hole on defense. It is telling that even as recently as 2017, Brown had an absolute slopfest against Mickey Gall that saw each man consistently take advantage of the other’s defensive weaknesses. By 2019, Brown putting things together seemed to be firmly in the category of an “if” rather than a “when,” so it was nice to see “Rude Boy” turn in a breakout performance against Bryan Barberena, picking the typically durable Barberena apart before stopping him in the third round. Brown followed that up with a win over Warlley Alves that might be the best of his career in terms of level of competition, even if the process was not particularly strong. Alves initiated wrestling exchanges that Brown was surprisingly happy to take part in before clamping on a triangle choke for a sudden victory. Either way, Brown has some real momentum for the first time in his UFC career, and the promotion has wasted no time in seeing if he has blossomed into a true contender, as he gets both a big chance and a big challenge here against Luque.

Until recently, Luque was one of the most underrated fighters on the UFC roster. After dropping his UFC debut, “The Silent Assassin” won 10 of his next 11 fights—and the lone loss looks much better in retrospect, given that it came against Leon Edwards. Beyond racking up wins, Luque also established himself as an elite bringer of violence; his fights were quite fun while they lasted but typically ended with a Luque finish before they truly got going. Luque broke out in 2019, both in terms of profile and accolades. Three of his four bouts earned “Fight of the Night” honors on their respective cards, and Luque got both a co-main event slot in Uruguay and a main card fight in Madison Square Garden. Wins over Barberena and Mike Perry saw Luque win violent wars of attrition, but a loss to Stephen Thompson showed the weaknesses in his increasingly straight-ahead approach. While Luque had his moments, he was more than willing to keep charging into Thompson’s offense and “Wonderboy” managed to keep Luque at a manageable distance. His last bout, a second win over Niko Price, was another fun affair, but it did raise some worry that Luque has plateaued or regressed in certain aspects. While it was impressive that Luque won a head-on war with a powerful banger, their first fight saw Luque mix things up a lot more without taking damage, and he also flashed his since-dormant submission skills. If Luque just settles in as a violent gatekeeper to the UFC’s Top 15, then he has still done well in the long run. A win here would do a lot towards proving he can keep striving towards something more.

Luque is the much more accomplished fighter on paper, but Brown has an excellent chance to score the biggest win of his career. In wake of Luque’s loss to Thompson, a look back at his resume shows that he has faced a steady slate of opponents who are willing to meet his pressure head-on. However, the Thompson loss showed that if Luque has an opponent who is focused on keeping him at range, he does not have much in the way of effective long-distance tools. Even against a nascent Jalin Turner, Luque struggled to get going against a reedy opponent—until Turner sold out for a spinning elbow that quickly got him in close enough range to get knocked out. If Brown comes into this fight with a similar game plan to his Barberena win, taking advantage of his gigantic frame and picking apart a pressuring opponent, it looks to be exactly the type of style that can beat Luque. There are some concerns about Luque’s leg kicks and his ability to chop down Brown, and this would be an excellent time for Luque to suddenly rediscover his wrestling. He should have a huge advantage on the mat against an opponent willing to play with fire on the ground, but Luque’s last takedown attempt came against Edwards three and a half years ago. Brown will likely find himself in trouble at times against an opponent as relentlessly persistent as Luque, but this feels like his fight to lose. The pick is Brown via decision.

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