Preview: UFC Fight Night 164 ‘Blachowicz vs. Jacare’

Lightweights

#13 LW | Charles Oliveira (27-8) vs. NR | Jared Gordon (15-3)

ODDS: Oliveira (-360), Gordon (+300)

It has taken him nearly a decade on the UFC roster to do so, but Oliveira might finally become the contender that everyone expected. “Do Bronx” remains one of the classic examples of how the UFC rushes prospects. Oliveira burst onto the scene in 2010 as a 20-year old submission whiz, and the promotion somehow thought that a flash win over Darren Elkins and a victory over Efrain Escudero would prepare him for the likes of Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone. That started an up-and-down run that wreaked havoc on Oliveira’s confidence and career. For every moment of submission wizardry the Brazilian broke out, there were just as many fights where Oliveira badly missed weight or fold at the first sign of pressure. Through 2017, the book seemed to have finally been written on Oliveira: He was as electric a finishing threat on the ground as there has been in UFC history but also a bit of a headcase who would get completely derailed at the first sign of adversity. However, in his last few fights, things may have finally clicked. Oliveira is a much more confident kickboxer who is willing to chase down his opponents and, more importantly, fight back from getting hit. The result has been some of the best performances of Oliveira’s career. He dominated top prospect David Teymur before finally putting a stamp on his trilogy with Nik Lentz via second-round knockout. This run should have gotten Oliveira the opportunity to work his way up the rankings, but for some reason, he is back stuck playing gatekeeper and against a tough style matchup in Gordon.

If nothing else, Gordon is going to test Oliveira’s ability to stand up to pressure, as the New Yorker is absolutely relentless. A lot has rightfully been made of Gordon’s life story -- in a sport full of fighters who have come back from addiction and adversity, his situation may have been the direst. However, the strong mental will he has showed in coming back from the depths comes through in his fighting style, as Gordon is willing to charge through hell in order to return fire and damage his opponent. At its best, it makes for a fun and brutal affair, but the unfortunate news for Gordon is that his chin may not entirely be up to the task. Diego Ferreira and Joaquim Silva each took advantage of Gordon’s lack of defense and eventually knocked him out. There may be a pivot coming at some point -- even Justin Gaethje has learned to take his foot off the gas pedal a bit -- but based on his last fight, a rebound win over Dan Moret, Gordon is not there; and yet, he still might manage to get by here.

Gordon does present a uniquely tough challenge for the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt due to his hard-charging style, but Oliveira presents his own problems for the American. Oliveira’s submission game in particular should cause some issues one way or another for Gordon, who often finds himself trying to outwrestle his opponents. Gordon may just be pathologically aggressive enough to charge right into a submission, and if not, it will be interesting to see how Gordon fares in a situation that may actually cause him to think and slow down. In a past life, Oliveira likely would have folded in the face of Gordon’s constant charges, but he has looked good enough lately that he should be able to play matador and eventually wear out Gordon in the later rounds. He will be walking a tightrope the entire time, but Oliveira should manage to cause enough damage on the feet to get Gordon diving for takedowns late, whether he wants to or not. The pick is Oliveira via third-round submission.

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