Women’s Strawweights
Mackenzie Dern (7-0) vs. Amanda Ribas (7-1)ODDS: Dern (-150), Ribas (+130)
Dern has been hyped throughout her MMA career -- and with good reason. After growing up on the mats, she developed a resume that makes her one of the most accomplished women in grappling history. Since setting her sights on mixed martial arts, Dern has shown enough talent to suggest she can make it to a championship level. While there has been some controversy over her constant weight misses, Dern is still an absolute powerhouse combined with her pathological aggression, which has led her to success while constantly trying to run over her opponents. Dern is not quite the automatic submission threat that her background suggests, as she still has some trouble getting things to the mat, but that also has not mattered much. Her competition to date has had little answer for her winging haymakers and grinding clinch game. After she posted a quick win over Amanda Bobby Cooper at UFC 224 in 2018, the UFC looked ready to strap the rocket to Dern, but pregnancy put that on pause for about a year and a half. Hopes for Dern remain high, but for now, this fight represents a soft entry back into the fight game, even if Ribas is an interesting prospect in her own right.
Ribas is a much more typical prospect, though there is still some extra intrigue given how suddenly she arrived on the scene in June. Ribas was initially slated for a 2017 debut but got pulled from that bout due to drug test issues that subsequently kept her out of action until a few months ago. Not much was expected of the Brazilian in her debut against Emily Whitmire, but instead, Ribas was one of the breakout stars of the card, earning a submission win while showing a ton of charisma in her post-fight interview. Ideally, she would be given a showcase rather than being cast as the B-side for this bout against Dern, but this also serves as a huge launching pad if Ribas manages to pull off the upset.
Ribas could be Dern’s toughest opponent to date, but this still looks like a fight the Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace should win handily. Most of Ribas’ pre-UFC footage saw her coming back from adversity on the mat and on the feet, and in general, she looks like the type of fighter who is willing to let Dern dictate the terms of the bout. The strongest part of Ribas’ game is her submissions. Even if she can take advantage of Dern’s aggression, it is difficult to see her segueing into a finish. Dern’s pressure should lead her to a quick win. The pick is Dern via first-round submission.
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