Welterweights
Gilbert Burns (16-3) vs. Gunnar Nelson (17-4-1)ODDS: Burns (-140), Nelson (+120)
He has seemingly been on the UFC roster forever, but it has taken the last year-plus for Nelson to finally establish himself as a top-tier welterweight. Nelson arrived in the UFC back in 2012 with some well-deserved hype, as his combination of high-level karate and jiu-jitsu made for an unorthodox style that allowed him to blow through the competition. “Gunni” also became a cult favorite along the way, owing to some combination of his laconic charisma, martial arts-based approach to the fight game and an unlikely friendship with Conor McGregor. Yet for all his prominence -- including a few European main events -- it was still an open question as to whether or not Nelson was actually a true contender. It was through no fault of his own. While he had a clear weakness against stronger wrestlers like Rick Story and Demian Maia, what looked like big wins at the time -- Brandon Thatch, in particular -- did not age particularly well. However, Nelson’s last two fights have resulted in two of the strongest performances of his career, as he came back from adversity against Alex Oliveira and gave Leon Edwards one of the tougher tests during his current surge. Given how good Edwards has looked, that bout in particular gives some hope that Nelson can rebound from the loss and make a true run at welterweight gold. Thiago Alves would have been an ideal bounce-back opponent, but Nelson instead gets a tougher test in Burns.
After an inconsistent run at lightweight, it would be impressive if Burns suddenly became a welterweight contender with two wins in two months. “Durinho” came into the UFC as one of the most highly regarded jiu-jitsu players on the roster, but he had issues actually getting to show those skills off against anyone of note. Against the lower reaches of the UFC roster, Burns had little trouble taking an arm home, but against stouter opponents who could keep the fight standing, like Rashid Magomedov or Michel Prazeres, Burns was left without much of a backup plan. In recent years, Burns has started to flash a power striking game that is not particularly pretty but has been effective -- enough so, in fact, that he has had difficulty finding willing opponents to step in and face him. In recent months, Burns has created his own opportunity with a willingness to move up to welterweight. In August, he stepped in on late notice and defeated Alexey Kunchenko, as Burns relied on his wrestling early and often before surviving long enough to see the scorecards. A win here would make Burns a concern at 170 pounds in shockingly quick fashion, but in general, he still looks set to be the latest fighter to find success moving up in weight.
This is an absolutely fascinating fight between high-level grapplers. It creates an odd dynamic, as well, as the former lightweight in Burns will likely have the strength and power advantages over Nelson, who is undersized at welterweight and probably a natural 155er. The key here is Nelson’s speed versus Burns’ strength. Nelson has typically struggled against more powerful fighters who can go toe-to-toe with him in the grappling department, and while that is a description that Burns fits to a tee, there is the issue of the Brazilian needing to get his hands on him first. Burns is still in the stage where he is throwing techniques on the feet rather than coalescing everything into a coherent striking game, so Nelson should be able to evade and counter to win a points battle. The other concern is Burns’ gas tank. He was absolutely exhausted by the end of the Kunchenko fight, and since he is unlikely to submit Nelson even if he gets his game going, it is difficult not to expect the Icelander to win the final frame of the fight. This is a big opportunity for Burns to score a breakthrough win and he could very well do it, but the combination of speed and cardio should see Nelson through to the finish line narrowly. The pick is Nelson via decision.
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