Middleweights
Antonio Carlos Jr. (10-2) vs. Ian Heinisch (12-1)ODDS: Carlos Jr. (-185), Heinisch (+160)
It is about time for the UFC to pull the trigger on Carlos Jr. “Cara de Sapato” looked like a find on the third season of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil,” as the former Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace showed off his submission skills and some knockout power as a heavyweight. A brief tour down at light heavyweight did not go well, as Carlos Jr. was outwrestled by Patrick Cummins, but after cutting down to 185 pounds and overwhelming Eddie Gordon, it looked like the Brazilian had found his true weight class. Naturally, he quickly suffered a loss that still haunts him to this day, as Daniel Kelly managed to survive two rounds worth of trouble to knock out Carlos Jr. in the third and score one of the biggest upsets of 2016. That loss may have broken some fighters, but Carlos Jr. has shown no ill effects, instead rattling off five straight wins. His striking is still there when he needs it, but it has been a pretty simple approach for Carlos Jr., as he looks to wrestle and set up a submission game that few middleweights can match. After he dispatched Tim Boetsch in 2018, the UFC tried to set up Carlos Jr. for bigger fights against Derek Brunson and Elias Theodorou, but after injuries scuttled those plans, he returns here to try and turn back Heinisch.
Any discussion of Heinisch has to start with his insane life story. Drug trafficking led to some time as a fugitive and he eventually found himself while wrestling in a Spanish prison. As it turns out, he is a pretty good fighter, too. The Colorado native stood out on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series with some brutal ground-and-pound over Justin Sumter, then immediately made a name for himself by stepping in on short notice and beating Cezar Ferreira in his UFC debut. Heinisch’s game is simple but effective, as it mostly consists of just power punches and aggressive wrestling. However, that doggedness and Heinisch’s toughness allows him to wear down his opponents, much like he did to “Mutante.” The Ferreira win alone establishes Heinisch as a tough middleweight, and this one will be a strong litmus test to see if he can carry his style all the way to contender status.
Despite representing a step back for Carlos Jr., this matchmaking does make a bit of sense. The Kelly loss continues to hang over him, so it is worth throwing him another tough fighter who is not willing to quit. There is a possibility that Heinisch’s aggression can take over, particularly since the Brazilian’s other UFC loss resulted from his being outwrestled. The bad news for Heinisch is that Carlos Jr. is just as capable of putting him on his back, as the American’s aggressive nature sometimes leads to being put in bad positions. As soon as Carlos Jr. gets control on the ground, he can probably find a win in short order. The pick is Carlos Jr. via first-round submission.
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